Under the international consensus on carbon reduction, the wave of electric vehicles has swept the world and has become the focus of attention from all walks of life. It is predicted that the proportion of electric vehicles will increase significantly from 2030, and it is estimated that it will reach 55% of the global car market by 2040, surpassing the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles. In the era of electric vehicles, it will indirectly lead the machine tool industry to develop a new layout.
The Carbon Reduction Consensus Drives the Development of the Electric Vehicle Market:
Under the international consensus on carbon reduction, the wave of electric vehicles has swept the world and has become the focus of attention from all walks of life. The global electric vehicle sales reached a new high of 3.24 million in 2020, with a growth rate of 43% compared with 2019, of which China (accounting for 41.3%) was the largest single market, Germany (12.3%), and the United States (10.1%) are the second and third largest markets. The indicator manufacturer leading the rise of electric vehicles - TESLA is currently the largest electric vehicle manufacturer with a market share (24.5%), and traditional car manufacturers have invested in electric vehicle development. Volkswagen and RNM Alliance's electric vehicle models have achieved good sales results, officially launching the electric vehicle market. Flourish. It is predicted that the proportion of electric vehicles will increase significantly from 2030, and it is estimated that it will reach 55% of the global car market by 2040, surpassing the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles, and officially ushering in the era of electric vehicles.
The world has formally formulated carbon emission standards. For example, the European Union's carbon emission standards need to be reduced by 15% in 2025 compared with 2021, and by 37.5% in 2030, prompting countries to set a schedule for banning the sale of fuel vehicles. Various advanced countries will fully convert to electric vehicles by 2050. Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the United Kingdom have set up a Net-zero pledge by 2050, establishing the electric vehicle industry as the primary development goal of each country in the next 30 years.
The Electric Vehicle Industry Affects the Development of Machine Tools:
The machine tool industry accounts for about 35%-40% of the application in the field of vehicles, and the development trend of electric vehicles will bring changes to the machine tool industry. The same thing as an electric vehicle and a fuel vehicle is that the architecture is composed of power, body, and chassis systems. The biggest difference between the two is the power system. Although the demand for engine and intake and exhaust-related components is gradually decreasing, the demand for the replaced three-electric system (motor, battery, and electronic control) has increased greatly, creating new development opportunities for machine tools.
In the process of progressing from fuel vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid vehicles to electric vehicles, the processing demand for power components-motors will gradually increase, with lathes, punching machines, and milling machines being the most numerous. The winding process required for the motor will generate opportunities for related machinery and equipment. It is estimated that the capital expenditure on machinery and equipment related to the winding process will grow from US$200 million in 2020 to US$600 million in 2030. The demand for batteries has increased, and lathes and milling machines are mostly used for processing. The stacking (lamination) process required for battery cells is a new processing business opportunity. It is estimated that the capital expenditure on machinery and equipment related to the stacking process will grow from 500 million US dollars in 2020 to 2030 $1.4 billion annually. In the process of partially converting transmission components to electric vehicles, related components such as gearboxes and gears still exist, and the processing requirements are mainly milling machines, lathes, and grinding/boring machines.
Component Processing Requirements for Electric Vehicles:
Motor and transmission:
The power system of electric vehicles is simpler than that of fuel vehicles. Different from the traditional model of the engine combined with a gearbox, electric vehicles can complete power transmission and high-low-speed conversion requirements only by single-speed gear ratio combined with motor speed changes even without a gearbox. Among them, as the power source of the motor, the amount of silicon steel sheets in the internal stator and rotor has been increased. The process used for the silicon steel sheet is stamping. The stamping mold requires related tool machining processes, as well as the gears and casings required for the transmission part. To create a series of related industry demand business opportunities. With the increasing popularity of electric vehicles, the application of multi-speed gear ratios may allow the application of gearboxes to develop again. Through the multi-speed gear ratio changes of the gearbox, the power transmission efficiency is better than that of the single-speed gear ratio, so that the motor can be maintained at a high speed. The energy consumption of the rotational speed and the requirements of different scenarios of high and low speeds are expected to improve the high and low-speed performance and better endurance of electric vehicles.
The battery pack is the key core component of electric vehicles, accounting for about 35%-40% of the cost of the whole vehicle. The battery pack mounted on the vehicle is huge under the requirements of endurance, and the upper cover, outer shell, base, and protective cover are all high processing requirements. The components are made of aluminum alloy and high-tensile steel plate for lightweight. It is estimated that by 2030, the demand for lithium-ion batteries will exceed 2.8 TWh (terawatt-hours) per year, which is equivalent to the total annual output of 80 TESLA super factories, which is 7 times higher than the current demand. Applications such as comprehensive processing machines and punching machines will be promoted simultaneously.
The simplification of components is another trend in the development of electric vehicles. To achieve additional value such as eliminating abnormal vehicle noise, improving safety, increasing cruising range, and saving production resources. Another development focus - modular chassis is the current model implemented by major car manufacturers. By sharing modular chassis, it can achieve the purpose of increasing production capacity and reducing costs. The integrated component casting machine and forming tool machine can take this opportunity to increase the number of components production and use.
The Rise of Electric Vehicles Leads to a New Layout of the Machine Tool Industry
Due to the strong push of policies and regulations related to carbon neutrality and ban on the sale of fuel vehicles by governments around the world, as well as changes in the product planning of international car manufacturers, the application of the global electric vehicle industry is accelerated. Traditional fuel vehicles have progressed to pure electric vehicles. The biggest difference is that the motor replaces the engine (including the gearbox), and the battery system replaces the fuel as the energy source. Although the machining needs of engines, gearboxes, and air intake and exhaust systems are no longer required, the machining needs of motors, battery housings, and gears are still high. In addition, machining methods such as stamping, die-casting, and stacking are required to be used in the future machine tool industry.
The manufacturing trend of electric vehicle components, including high-efficiency and automated production of motor components, automated production of batteries and power modules, reduction gear manufacturing, etc., and the application and processing of aluminum alloy components and composite components in response to the lightweight needs of electric vehicles The increase in demand will increase the application of non-traditional processing technologies (water jet, ultrasonic, laser, stacking manufacturing, etc.), develop new technologies for machine tool equipment, and drive related manufacturing automation and modular production needs.
Looking forward to the future, the market development trend of the global machine tool industry is changing rapidly, and it has already changed from a mass-production mode to a small amount of diverse and flexible production. Meet customized production needs. Since the automobile industry is the largest application end market of Taiwan's machine tool industry, in response to the rise of electric vehicles, the machine tool equipment will develop towards composite, multi-task and large-scale development. Through intelligent technology value-added, plus virtual, and real integration, shaking suppression, thermal displacement control, 3D real-time imitation, and interference inspection functions, voice interface, machine processing status monitoring, production data visualization and predictive maintenance monitoring system, and other intelligent function, in line with the high-level manufacturing needs of the electric vehicle industry.
After experiencing the main development period of traditional fuel vehicles, due to the closed supply chain of traditional vehicles, compared with international machine tool manufacturers who can give priority to supplying the automobile industry. It is more difficult for Taiwan machine tools to cut into the international automobile supply chain, so the emerging industry created by electric vehicles ecological development trend. Taiwan can add value through software and hardware applications and automation integration, develop smart machinery and smart manufacturing, improve the added value and differentiation of machine tool equipment, and strengthen international competitiveness. It is expected to lead to the development of the industrial context and create new opportunities for the machine tool industry.
Deconstruction and Reconstruction of the Automobile Industry to Grasp the New Business Opportunities of Electric Vehicle Components:
Since 1998, the EU began to advocate reducing carbon emissions. At that time, it was limited to verbal agreements and no mandatory constraints. In 2014, the European Union formally established the world's strictest vehicle carbon emission control target, which legally mandates car manufacturers to reduce carbon emissions. In 2021, all new cars sold in the EU must be covered. Car manufacturers cannot meet the above standards. Vehicles that exceed carbon emission standards will be subject to fines. This car carbon emission control applies to all cars sold in the EU member states. To avoid the fines has prompted major automakers to respond, most simply by producing electric vehicles.
Reducing carbon emissions (automotive fuel consumption) is the most important R&D topic for major automakers in the world. By converting traditional auto components to electrification, reducing the weight of electrical components, and miniaturizing engines, operating efficiency is improved. For example, to save energy, an integrated starter motor and generator are designed to cooperate with the automatic start/stop system when parking. Through the design of high-voltage components, the matching components such as IC semiconductors can withstand lower currents. , Reduce the system cost, simplify the peripheral auxiliary components, and the integrated starter motor and generator can perform energy recovery actions during idling and braking, effectively reducing energy consumption.
In response to the trend of energy-saving and carbon reduction, new energy vehicles and electric vehicles are the future vehicle development trends. Whether it is a new energy vehicle or an electric vehicle, many powers electronic components must be used in the body, and the requirements for electric power of various components are higher than ever. Even the traditional mechanical-based components have been developed to be controlled by electronic components for high efficiency and precision. Under this trend, the degree of electrification of the power system is increasing day by day. Some components must be redesigned/developed to meet the demand for vehicle electrification. In response to the increase in the power consumption of vehicle systems, the application of high-efficiency and energy-saving power components is a vehicle for electrification's development focus.
Electric vehicles improve pollution emissions through electrification components, and innovative designs of electric control or power electronic components improve operating efficiency and extend driving distance. Vehicles are divided into Electric Vehicle, Full Hybrid, and Mild Hybrid according to the degree of electrification of the power battery ratio. Powertrain with Micro Hybrid. Simply put, it is the difference in the proportion of battery power and electric motor responsible for the power system. Pure electric vehicles indicate that they completely use power batteries as electrification power.
Restructuring of the Automotive Industry and Transformation of the Component Industry:
Electric vehicles use electric motors and power batteries to replace the original (gasoline or diesel) engine and fuel system as the source of power for electric vehicles. Components such as intake/exhaust systems or fuel supply systems, gearboxes, hydraulic devices, multipliers, master cylinders, and steering systems belong to traditional internal combustion engines. Both are replaced by electronic components to control the starting, running, stopping, acceleration and deceleration, etc.
Electric vehicles add components such as shock springs, shock absorbers, suspension arms, electric air conditioning systems, and high-voltage line groups to the existing suspension systems, car bodies, tires, and other devices of traditional cars. As the vehicle system moves towards electrification with the development of the electronic trend, the proportion of electronic components such as power batteries and electric motors in the total vehicle cost has increased significantly. And the proportion of the original engine, gearbox, and other fuel systems in the total vehicle cost has gradually decreased.
The power battery accounts for the highest proportion (40~50%) in the cost of electric vehicles, followed by the drive system. The cost proportion is reduced from 22~24% of the original traditional internal combustion engine to 10~20%. Among them, electric vehicles use electric motors, electric motor drivers, vehicle controllers, transmission mechanisms and transmission shafts, and cooling systems to replace existing engines, auxiliary equipment, transmission mechanisms, and exhaust systems. Other costs of electric vehicles include body shells, chassis, and other components. Because electric vehicles derive many new controllers, power batteries, power components, or power conversion modules from traditional (internal combustion engine) vehicles, the phenomenon of complete vehicle and component industry restructuring has formed. And it has opened industrial transformation opportunities for electric vehicle complete vehicles and components.
Automotive Lightweight and Modular Components:
Vehicle light-weighting can be achieved by producing small vehicles, improving vehicle structures, and using lightweight alloys, high-tensile steel sheets, or rubber and plastic materials. The vehicle can be miniaturized because the car adopts the front engine and the front-wheel drive, and the parts such as the transmission shaft and the differential gear are eliminated so that the structure is more streamlined. Other structural improvements, such as the use of high-tensile steel plates, hollow structures, and miniaturization, have been gradually implemented in European, American, and Japanese car factories. The use of rubber and plastic materials in automobiles has grown rapidly. In response to the practice of lightweight automobiles, considerable attention has been paid to increasing the proportion of lightweight materials used in automobiles. Among them, rubber and plastic materials are all important in terms of weight, manufacturability, and material cost. It has the advantage of using lightweight materials for auto parts and components, and the amount of use is increasing year by year.
Depots achieve the goal of reducing vehicle weight by producing small vehicles, streamlining vehicle exterior design, miniaturizing components, and using lightweight alloys. In recent years, to consider the riding space and transmission efficiency, the car adopts the front engine and front-wheel transmission and eliminates the rear drive shaft, rear axle differential, gear set, and other parts to make the structure more streamlined. Such as body sheet metal materials, manufacturing method, and mechanism improvement, hollow structure design and application of miniaturized parts, etc., are gradually implemented by automobile manufacturers in Europe, the United States, and Japan. Various car manufacturers are competing to increase the application ratio of light alloys in auto parts and components, among which light alloys such as high-strength steel plates, aluminum alloys, magnesium alloys, and titanium alloys have attracted the most attention. There are several ways to realize the lightweight of electric vehicles:
- Use lightweight materials, such as low-density aluminum and aluminum alloys, magnesium-aluminum alloys, engineering plastics or carbon fiber composite materials, etc., and use high-strength steel plates instead of ordinary steel to reduce the thickness of the steel plates.
- Optimize the design of the lightweight structure, and optimize the structure of the auto body, chassis, engine, and other components.
- Adopt advanced manufacturing technology, such as laser tailor welding, hydroforming, aluminum alloy low-pressure casting, and semi-solid forming technology.
The electric vehicle system is composed of system components or modules such as the body, chassis, power mechanism, suspension, tires, battery pack, steering mechanism, braking mechanism, electric motor, and air conditioner, among which the body and chassis account for the electric vehicle. The total weight is about 2/3 of the total weight. The focus of the lightweight electric vehicle lies in the design and manufacture of the body and chassis components. The lightweight of the body and chassis helps to reduce the weight of the electric vehicle. The lightweight of electric vehicles can be achieved through the design of the body structure, the application of lightweight materials, and manufacturing technology.
Lightweight electric vehicles focus on:
Light-weight electric vehicles can be achieved in the following ways:
- Lightweight based on improving the power consumption of electric vehicles.
- Lightweight based on improving the performance and safety of electric vehicles.
- Vehicle Downsizing
- Vehicle Redesign & Content Reduction
- Lightweight Material Selection
More and more electric vehicle components use CFRP (Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer/ Plastic). Due to the characteristics of light weight and mechanical strength, major automakers around the world are competing for development and trial production. At present, carbon fiber composite materials are being developed and applied to automotive parts Examples of components are body, chassis, roof, doors, cylinder head, hood, rear spoiler, spoiler, center console, trim strips, instrument panels, driveshafts, special drivetrains, seats, seat cushions, Tail spoiler, rearview mirror shell, frame cantilever, side skirt, air shroud, A-pillar, sun visor, radiator guard, side guard, pedal, auxiliary bumper and other body, interior parts, and Exterior parts, etc.
The auto parts industry has evolved into multinational enterprises across national borders and competes globally, and the competition is becoming more and more fierce. Consumers from all over the world have diversified requirements for auto parts, and the development trend of parts is to require continuous performance in all aspects. Improvements such as safety, reliability, pollutant emissions, fuel consumption/carbon emissions, design practicality, etc. After more than 100 years of development in the automotive industry, the difficulty of developing innovative products has continued to increase. Depots have invested a lot in the research and development of auto parts. Depots must bear huge cost pressures such as parts manufacturing, management, marketing, after-sales, and inventory. Modularization of automotive components provides a countermeasure to simplify and reduce costs.
The concept of component modularization is gradually developed and applied by car manufacturers. The modularized development of components derived from the product platform is a necessary means to cope with the fierce market competition. VW proposed a modularization strategy and implemented MQB platform product development plan, and the modular development of automotive components will become the trend of R&D and manufacturing in the automotive industry in the future. In addition, the integration technology of electric vehicles shows the future development of the automobile industry. Since the structure of electric vehicles omits complex mechanical components or systems such as traditional engines, gearboxes, and transmission shafts, it is easier to introduce the concept of modularization in the design of the whole vehicle. The design will be the same as the current ICT products, with a high degree of standardization and commonality, and the various sub-systems (Sub-Systems) that make up the final product will be responded to by the modular development method.
Introduce Smart Manufacturing Components Industry Advancement:
Automobiles have entered an era of product diversification and shortened life cycles. The major automobile manufacturers were not able to provide many models. After the selection of models in 2017 increased, the model life cycle was shortened. How to adjust production capacity by consumer demand has become a serious issue that auto factories and auto parts manufacturers must face, appropriately corresponding to auto parts production efficiency, R&D and manufacturing costs, defect rate, high value, and even parts logistics scheduling, etc.
The future auto industry will develop towards the trend of sharing economy and high customization. In response to the needs of the sharing economy auto industry, the auto industry will demand cost reduction, robustness requirements, rapid on-site maintenance, and the possibility of supporting Big Data. Data & Security—Digital Platforms Embedded Security, H2M to M2H, M2M, Additive Manufacturing for Aftermarket, Augmented Reality-based Application for Aftermarket Service. In response to the needs of the highly customized automotive industry, the automotive industry will seek the integration of sales/manufacturing/service. The manufacturing technologies that may be supported include 3D Scanning, 3D Modeling, Additive Manufacturing, Flexible Production Systems, Big Data for Product/Service Development, etc.
In response to the rise of the new business model of the sharing economy, the manufacturing technology needs of the automobile industry will change. The new sharing economy model will cause changes in car ownership and usage patterns. Car ownership is concentrated on operators, and the utilization rate of cars will increase significantly. The increase in the wear rate of automotive components increases the demand for vehicle robustness and immediate maintenance. The car ownership model will still exist, but there will be a trend towards customization to reflect personal design style and taste, so customized services, and flexible manufacturing methods will emerge as the times require.
Importing Advanced Manufacturing has the following implications:
- Introduce automated equipment to increase production.
- Reduce production and material costs and increase added value.
- Improve the quality of professional manpower and solve the problem of lack of work.
- Improve the efficiency of the auto parts supply system and improve service quality.
- Link production and sales information to improve factory management efficiency.
- Cooperate with intelligent production, shorten the design and development time, and Time to Market.
- Strengthen customization and demand for a small number of diverse industries.
- Create a new wave of employment opportunities.
- Promote cross-industry integration and create value.