Analysis of the Global Production and Sales Development of Automobiles and Components from the German Automobile industry
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Analysis of the Global Production and Sales Development of Automobiles and Components from the German Automobile industry

The German automotive industry has always been a core industry in driving employment, economic growth, and maintaining global competitiveness.
Published: May 17, 2022
Analysis of the Global Production and Sales Development of Automobiles and Components from the German Automobile industry

In recent years, the German auto industry has been committed to investing in various infrastructures and using policy tools to encourage investment and R&D, hoping to catch up with the changing trends of the global industry. In December 2020, the EU announced to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. Since 2020, the epidemic has affected the global manufacturing supply chain, and the proportion of electric vehicles or vehicle electrification has grown, impact on the auto parts industry. Among them, auto parts and components are more critical to the development of the manufacturing industry, and the auto parts manufacturing industry will promote the transformation of the machine tool industry.

The General Economy of Germany:

Germany is a member of the seven largest industrial countries in the world. Germany is a highly developed social market economy system with strong economic strength. It is the fourth-largest economy in the world, the largest economy in Europe, and an industrial country with high foreign trade dependence. Automobile manufacturing, electrical industry, machinery manufacturing, and chemical industry are in the leading position in the world and are quite competitive in the global manufacturing industry.

The Ruhr area is a traditional coal and steel industrial area in Germany. Munich, Stuttgart, and Wolfsburg have also formed strong manufacturing clusters, while Berlin, Leipzig, and Dresden are industrial centers in eastern Germany, and new industries are concentrated in the Munich area.

The Size of the German Automotive Industry:

60% of Europe's R&D energy comes from the German auto industry, and 20% of Germany's economic output comes from the auto industry. The 5.5 million passenger cars produced in Europe are from Germany, 78% of the vehicles produced in Germany are exported, and 20% of the global automobile production lines are related to the German automobile and component industry, which shows the influence of German manufacturing.

Production and sales of automobiles, components, and electric vehicles in Germany: Overview of the German Automobile Industry The automobile and component manufacturing industry is the core industry in Germany. In 2020, the output value of the automobile industry is 500.9 billion US dollars. There are nearly 1,000 automobile and component manufacturers, and the number of automobile-related employees exceeds 880,000. It is Germany’s largest export-oriented production value. industry. Among them, the production value of the automobile industry in 2021 will be US$523 billion, including the production value of car body and body of US$16 billion, the production value of automobiles of US$412.8 billion, and the production value of components of US$94.2 billion.

In 2021, the export value of the automobile industry will be 368.9 billion US dollars, which is a 4.4% decrease from 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic. In the past 10 years, it still ranks first in Germany's export value. At the same time, automobiles and components are also Germany's most important import items, with an import value of 223 billion U.S. dollars, with a trade surplus of $145.9 billion. In 2021, affected by the continuation of the epidemic and the shortage of automotive chips, the sales of German cars in China, Japan, India, the United States, and Russia will all decline. Only the Brazilian market has improved slightly, and Europe has only grown slightly.

Germany's main auto exporting countries are the United States, China, and the United Kingdom in order. In addition, the China market has already become an important source of profit for the three major auto manufacturers such as VW, Benz, and BMW. China's auto market directly drives the profit of the German auto industry. In 2021, Germany will produce a total of 3.353 million vehicles of various types and sell 2.922 million vehicles. Due to factors such as the continued epidemic and the shortage of automotive chips, production and sales will decline compared with 2020. Among them, VW ranked first with a market share of 18.5%, followed by Mercedes Benz with a market share of 9.4%, and Ford with a market share of 7.8%.

In the past two years, the production and sales of the German automobile manufacturing industry have both declined, and the sales of commercial vehicles and components have also declined. Only the production and sales of electric vehicles have shown growth. With the development of electric vehicles, carbon dioxide emissions will continue to decrease, and by 2023, the number of new electric models developed by automakers will be tripled. In 2024, the industry is expected to invest US$57 billion in R&D on alternative vehicles driven by non-fossil fuels. In terms of foreign investment, the three major German automakers are all actively investing in foreign factories. On the one hand, it uses the advantages of local production to localize the supply chain to reduce production costs; rates. In the future, to cooperate with the transformation of the domestic automobile industry in Germany, whether the automobile manufacturers will move the production of traditional (internal combustion engine) automobile factories to overseas production, the original German factory will focus on the layout of the electric vehicle market.

Electric Vehicle Sales in Germany:

In 2021, Germany will sell a total of 1.084 million electric vehicles, 1.3 times the sales in 2020, of which 335,000 pure electric vehicles will be sold, accounting for 30.9% of the sales of electric vehicles. Although the proportion of electric vehicle sales and listings will breakthrough in 2021, the total number of electric vehicles driving in Germany is about 1.35 million every day (45% battery electric vehicles, 55% hybrid vehicles, and plug-in hybrid vehicles), accounting for 2.6% of the 52.16 million cars in Germany is still low. Thanks to the support of industrial policies and purchase subsidies, it has great market development space and potential in the future.

Electric Vehicle-Related Policies in Germany:

The European Union has announced a goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 55% by 2030. Europäischen Umweltverbände and T&E (Transportation & Environment) pointed out that by then, the European Union needs 33 million electric vehicles to replace traditional cars, and even 44 million vehicles are required to achieve the carbon neutrality target. electric car. As only about 2% of the EU's 280 million vehicles are powered by electricity, and the charging facilities for electric vehicles are insufficient, it is estimated that the EU will need to invest 80 billion euros by 2030 to increase and popularize relevant infrastructure to cope with the era of electric vehicles. advent.

Germany's government plans to inject 60 billion euros into the climate fund through a supplementary budget to finance climate goals for the next four years. As part of a pledge to phase out coal-fired power generation by the end of 2030, Germany's government wants renewable energy to supply 80% of its needs, pledges to reach zero carbon emissions by 2045, and accelerate the transition to electric vehicles. EV subsidies (€6,000-9,000 per vehicle) will continue until 2025 under the German ruling coalition agreement. At the same time, the agreement says existing excise taxes on gasoline, heating oil, coal, and natural gas will not be increased. According to the 2030 Climate Action Program, Germany plans to reach 10 million electric vehicles by 2030 and set a target of more than 1 million electric vehicle charging stations.

Electric Vehicle Components Drive Industry Restructuring:

The operation of electric vehicles requires power conversion processes such as power generation, charging, and discharging. The 35% energy efficiency of pure electric vehicles is much higher than that of traditional internal combustion engines. The power batteries covered by electric vehicles account for 40-50% of the cost structure of vehicles. Although the unit price of power batteries has been reduced year by year, the price remains high so far. The feature of electric vehicles is to reduce the traditional internal combustion engine components and increase the integrated application of electrified components and power semiconductor components. The power battery accounts for 40-50% of the cost of electric vehicles, followed by the drive system, and the cost of traditional internal combustion engines is reduced by 10-20%.

Automotive components can be divided into 8 major systems according to their functional characteristics: engine, engine peripherals, transmission system, braking system, steering system, suspension system, body and tires, and other components. Among them, electric vehicles use electric motors and power batteries to replace traditional (gasoline or diesel) engines and fuel systems. As the power source of electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles abandon the intake/exhaust system or fuel supply system of traditional internal combustion engines and other components. The starting, running, stopping, acceleration, and deceleration of the electric vehicle is controlled by the power motor, driver, and electronic components. In addition, electric vehicles have adjusted and designed components such as shock springs, shock absorbers, suspension arms, air conditioning systems, and high-voltage line groups. With the development of vehicle systems toward electrification and intelligence, power batteries, electric motors, etc. The proportion of automobile electronic components in the cost of automobiles has increased significantly, and the proportion of traditional fuel systems such as engines and gearboxes in automobiles has gradually decreased. Compared with traditional vehicles, electric vehicles have newly added controllers, power batteries, power components or power conversion modules, etc. The forming a phenomenon of reorganization of the automobile and components industry, and the manufacturing and processing patterns have also changed, opening opportunities for the transformation of the electric vehicle components industry.

Opportunities for Electric Vehicle Component Manufacturing and Machine Tool Applications:

In the case of the fixed performance of the power battery, the most effective way to extend the continuation distance is to reduce the weight of electric vehicles through material application and manufacturing methods. The main ways to achieve lightweight electric vehicles are as follows:

  1. Use lightweight materials, such as aluminum alloys, magnesium-aluminum alloys, engineering plastics, or carbon fiber composite materials, and use high-tensile-strength steel plates instead of ordinary steel to reduce the thickness of the steel plates.
  2. Optimize the design of the lightweight structure, and optimize the structure of the auto body, chassis, and other components.
  3. Adopt advanced manufacturing processes, such as laser tailor welding, hydroforming, aluminum alloy low-pressure casting, semi-solid forming technology, etc.

The sub-systems of electric vehicles can be roughly divided into the car body, body, chassis system, power battery system, power system, and various controller casings. Ferrous metal materials, light alloys (aluminum alloys), composite materials, etc., are changed to non-ferrous metals.

The key components of electric vehicles are distinguished by machining and manufacturing processes, including welding or casting, steel plate stamping/die (milling), cutting/scraping/milling/heat treatment/wheel grinding/grinding, etc. Depending on the type of components and functional requirements, possible applications the types of machine tools include lathes/milling machines/drilling machines/grinding machines/ (MC machining center), and so on.

Opportunities and Challenges in the Era of Electric Vehicles:

Electric vehicles are not only the mainstream of the future market but also affect related industries into new changes. The electrification of vehicles has become an irreversible trend, and traditional cars are seen as outdated technology. When the power source of automobiles changes from fuel to electric drive, it is not only the system architecture of the overall vehicle that changes. Electric vehicles are an innovative industry that combines IT, and the diversification of manufacturing and production models follows, making the development of the electric vehicle market more and more.

Compared with traditional internal combustion engine-powered vehicles, which use traditional components such as engines and gearboxes as the power system, the power sources of electric vehicles are power batteries, power motors, and drivers. Looking at the structure of a conventional car to an electric vehicle. The most critical differences include the replacement of the engine by the motor, the replacement of the fuel tank by the battery, and the replacement of the gearbox by the gearbox.

In the past, an engine required 1,200 components, and the traditional engine was replaced by a power motor, and the required components were reduced to more than 100. The demand for related auto parts has also changed, including the cylinder block, piston, crankshaft, exhaust valve, and camshaft of the engine system.

Since there is no need for an engine and an intake/exhaust system, the gearbox is also relatively simplified. This means that the milling, drilling, boring, threading, grinding and other complex metal cutting processes of traditional automotive components in the past will change. Because the number of items to be processed is reduced, the application requirements of the machine tool industry have been changed, such as various types of related machine tools and special machines, automated production lines, tools or fixtures, fixtures, etc. All need to adjust the design and use it appropriately. Although the electrification of automobiles eliminates key components such as engines and transmissions. However, the demand for some components has increased, including gearboxes (gearsets), forged, or cast aluminum alloy wheels, aluminum-alloy body panels, three-electrical systems such as power battery temperature management systems and brackets, power motor rotors and stators, and aluminum alloys driver control box and other related components. Although the popularity of electric vehicles seems to cause impact and pressure on the machine tool industry, changing the direction is also an opportunity to bring about changes and challenges in the machine tool industry.

Published by May 17, 2022 Source :maonline

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