Russia Hopes to Become the Top 5 Economies of World

At this stage, to overcome the economic crisis under Western countries' economic sanctions, Russia is actively promoting the "import substitution" policy, is committed to developing industrial diversification, and hopes to establish "economic sovereignty." The "import substitution" policy planned by the Russian government is expected to significantly reduce the import dependence of many industries, including machine tool products, by 2020. Therefore, Taiwan machine tool manufacturers should pay attention to which products exported to Russia may be affected in the future. Local replacement of local production products. However, with the foundation of the Russian machine-tool industry at this stage, there is still a lot of room for efforts to achieve this goal. In the short to medium term, it is still necessary to solve the problems that the manufacturing industry needs at this stage by importing foreign machine tool products.

If Russia wants to become the world's top five economies, GDP per capita will grow by 1.5 times. However, before this, Russia needs to find ways to get rid of the continued economic sanctions in the West. Therefore, the Russian government is actively promoting various policies of "import substitution" and "modernization of production lines." Measures to prohibit the import of European and American foods to Russia, and also adopt the "import substitution" strategy to further support the development of related industries in Russia and drive the output of food, raw materials, and chemicals to increase significantly, with the purpose of import substitution and promoting the export of non-energy products, to seek more diversified import sources. Since the second quarter of 2016, Russia's economy has been steadily growing and recovering for seven consecutive quarters. According to the statistics of the Russian Federal Statistics Office, the country's GDP growth in 2017 was 1.4%, but the structural problems of the Russian internal economy still failed to see effective reforms, and the dependence on energy and raw materials was still quite high.

Under economic sanctions, Russia's machine tool demand trends

According to Gardner Research statistics, global machine tool consumption in 2017 was US$83.203 billion, a 4.3% increase from 2016. The top three global consumer markets were China, the United States, and Germany, with consumption amounts of 299.7, 85.1, and 6.43 billion The US dollar accounts for approximately 36.0%, 0.2%, and 7.7% of global machine tool consumption, respectively. Russia is the tenth largest consumer market in the world, with a consumption amount of US$1.39 billion, a 5.2% increase from 2016. Further analysis of the current demand trend in Russia is roughly due to the demand for replacement of new equipment by Russian manufacturers due to old equipment. Besides, the Russian government supports the automotive industry to issue about 90% of Russian machine tools. All machine tool products rely on imports. Figure 2 shows the import value and annual growth rate of Russian machine tools from 2008 to 2017. After 2010, it has grown year by year, reaching 2,387 million US dollars in 2014, which is a trend exhibition of the demand for Russian machine tools under small economic sanctions in 2013, and the extension of new car purchases And subsidy policies to support the development of the automotive market. However, the economic sanctions imposed in Western Europe and the United States, coupled with the depreciation of the ruble, have weakened the ability to purchase manufacturing equipment, resulting in a slowdown in the amount of consumption of machine tools. The top ten countries in the number of imported machine tools. Furthermore, in the past, the products were mainly purchased from large Western European manufacturers such as Germany and Italy. In recent years, they have been affected by the depreciation of the ruble. Therefore, the cost of purchasing equipment from Western European countries has increased. Low-end products still account for more than 80% of the overall market demand.

About 90% of Russia's machine tool products rely on imports. Figure 2 shows the import value and annual growth rate of Russian machine tools from 2008 to 2017. It has grown year by year after 2010, reaching US$2,387 million in 2014, compared with 2013 A slight increase of 1.6%, but still not as good as the peak in 2008. However, since 2015, the global economy has been influenced by the new mediocre economic pattern of low economic growth rate, low-interest rate, and low price, as well as the decline in crude oil prices and economic sanctions in Europe and the United States. In 2014, the value of imports declined by 51.4%, which was USD 17.1 and USD 1.16 billion, respectively, while the value of imports in 2017 showed a slight increase, up 27.7% from 2016. However, in recent years, Russia still has a great demand for machine tool products. The main sources of demand are automobile and aviation, aerospace industry, and infrastructure construction. From January to March 2018, the import value increased by 25.8% compared with the same period last year.

Looking further at the main imported machine tools of Russia from 2008 to 2017, as shown in Figure 3, the machine with the highest import value is the metal rolling mill and its rollers (8455). In 2017, "metal rolling mill and its rollers" accounted for 13.6 of the total import values %; followed by the second-ranked metal pressure processing machine (8462). In 2017, "metal-pressure processing machine" accounted for 15.8% of the total import value; while the third-ranked metal cutting processing center, single station and multi-station combination Machine (8457), in 2017 "metal cutting machining center, single station and multi-station combination machine" accounted for 18.3% of the total import value.

The proportion of imports of Russian machine tools in the first quarter of 2018, of which "metal cutting machining centers, single-station, and multi-station combined machines" accounted for 19.4% of the total imports. The import value was US$65 million. The import value of "cutting metal lathes" is US$50 million, accounting for 15.04% of the total import value. In terms of the number of Russian imports of Taiwan machine tools, these two models are the largest. The imports in the first quarter of 2018 were US$9.31 million and US$8.99 million, respectively, accounting for 36.7% and 35.4% of the total imports.

The consumer market of imported comprehensive processing machines and lathes in Russia in 2017

1. Overall machine tool
   The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the number of imported machine tools in Russia in the past five years (2013-2017) was -10.9%. Furthermore, the overall Russian machine tool import market needs to be analyzed from two different trading methods. First of all, for the trading market where the number of machines is the unit of valuation, the average unit price and quantity of Russia’s imported machine tool products from 59 countries in the world in 2017 were analyzed, and the total number of imports in this market was 1,199,502 units and the total import amount was US$1,288,970,748 is divided into three regions based on the average import unit price of US$7,791/unit and US$55,666/unit.
   In the market area where the average unit price of imports exceeds US$55,666/unit, the import volume accounts for 0.6% of the total import volume, and the import value accounts for 37.6% of the total import volume. The largest supplier in this regional market is Germany, whose average unit price is US$55,666/unit, and the number of products supplied accounts for 77.2% and 0.5% of the total imports of the region and Russia, respectively. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 64.5% and 24.2% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. Secondly, Japan is the second-largest supplier in this regional market, with an average unit price of US$125,850 per unit. The number of products supplied accounts for 7.5% and 0% of the total imports in the region and Russia, respectively. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 14.2% and 5.3% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. Also, the top five suppliers in the region include Switzerland, Austria, and Belgium.
   In the market area with an average import unit price of US$7,791/unit and US$55,666/unit, its import volume accounts for 0.8% of the total import volume, and the import value accounts for 16.0% of the total import volume. The main supplier of this regional market is South Korea, and the average unit price of its products is US$53,843 per unit. The quantity of its supplied products accounts for 12.2% and 0.1% of the total imports of this product in the region and Russia, respectively. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 29.3% and 4.7% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. This is followed by the Czech Republic, whose average unit price is US$46,925/unit, and the number of products it supplies accounts for only 11.7% and 0.1% of the region and Russia’s overall imports. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 24.4% and 3.9% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. The top five suppliers in the region still include the United States, Spain, and Ukraine.
   As for the market area where the average unit price of imports is less than US$7,791/unit, the import volume accounts for 98.6% of the total import volume, and the import value accounts for 46.4% of the total import volume. The main supplier of this regional market in mainland China and the average unit price of its products is 340 US dollars/unit. The quantity of the supplied products accounts for 54.2% and 53.5% of the total import volume of the region and Russia. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 36.5% and 16.9% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. The top five suppliers in the region still include Italy, Taiwan, Belarus, and Turkey. Taiwan’s average import unit price of US$7,544/unit falls in a market area where the average import unit price is less than US$7,791/unit. Its import volume accounts for 1.3% of the region’s imports, and the import value accounts for 20.0 %.
2. Comprehensive processing machine
   In the past five years (2013-2017), the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the value of imported comprehensive processing machines in Russia was -7.47%. Based on the analysis of the average unit price and quantity of Russia's imported machine tool products from 22 countries in 2017, the total number of imports in this market was 1,563 units and the total amount of imports was US$263,185,753. USD 517,337/unit is divided into three areas.
   In the market area where the average unit price of imports exceeds US$517,337/unit, the import volume accounts for 16.4% of the total import volume, and the import value accounts for 53.0% of the total import volume. The largest supplier in this regional market is Germany, whose average unit price is US$517,337/unit, and the quantity of supplied products accounts for 61.5% and 10.1% of the total import volume of the region and Russia, respectively. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 58.5% and 31.1% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. Secondly, Italy is the second-largest supplier in the regional market. The average unit price of its products is US$584,100/unit, and the number of products supplied accounts for 3.2% and 2.2% of the total imports of the region and Russia, respectively. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 14.2% and 7.5% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. Besides, the top five suppliers in the region include Switzerland, the Czech Republic, and Croatia.
   In the market area with an average import unit price of US$59,878/unit and US$517,337/unit, the import volume accounts for 63.5% of the total import volume, and the import value accounts for 41.6% of the total import volume. The main supplier of this regional market in Taiwan and the average unit price of its products is US$87,425 per unit. The quantity of its supplied products accounts for 52.5% and 33.3% of the total imports of this product in the region and Russia, respectively. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 41.6% and 17.3% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. This is followed by South Korea, where the average unit price of its products is US$128,051 per unit and the number of products it supplies accounts for only 21.4% and 13.6% of the total imports of the product in the region and Russia. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 24.8% and 10.3% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. The top five suppliers in the region include Japan, the United States, and Turkey.
   As for the market area where the average unit price of imports is less than US$59,878/unit, its import volume accounts for 20.1% of the total import volume, and the import value accounts for 5.3% of the total import volume. The main supplier of this regional market in mainland China and the average unit price of its products is US$49,249 per unit. The quantity of the supplied products accounts for 83.1% and 16.7% of the total imports of the products in the region and Russia. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 91.8% and 4.88% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. The top five suppliers in the region include India, Bulgaria, the United Kingdom, and Belarus.
3. Lathe
   In the recent five years (2013-2017), the annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of the amount of imported metal-cutting lathes was -8.8%. Based on the analysis of the average unit price and quantity of Russian machine tool products imported from 36 countries in 2017 in the world, and the total number of imports in this market is 8,437 units and the total import amount is USD 206,230,511, the average unit price of imports is USD 24,865/ USD 87,590/unit is divided into three areas.
   In the market area where the average unit price of imports exceeds US$87,590/unit, the import volume accounts for 7.3% of the total import volume, and the import value accounts for 4.6% of the total import volume. The largest supplier in this regional market is Germany, and the average unit price of its products is 161,087 US dollars/unit, and the number of products supplied accounts for 31.2% and 2.3% of the total imports of the region and Russia, respectively. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 27.3% and 14.9% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. Secondly, the second largest supplier in this regional market is Japan, whose average unit price is US$236,052/unit, and the quantity of supplied products accounts for 18.1% and 1.3% of the total import volume of the region and Russia, respectively. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 23.3% and 12.7% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. Besides, the top five suppliers in the region include Italy, South Korea, and the Czech Republic.

The Metalloobrabotka exhibition was founded in 1984 and co-hosted by the Russian Machine Tool Association and the EXPO CENTER exhibition center. It is the largest and most influential professional exhibition in the field of metal processing in Russia. Observing the Russian machine tool market from Metalloobrabotka, although Western countries are still imposing sanctions on Russia, various well-known machine tool and component and tool manufacturers have participated in the exhibition, which shows that the manufacturers of machine tool industries in these countries are not willing to this Abandon the Russian market, and these manufacturers exhibited representative high-tech products on the one hand but also exhibited exhibits suitable for the current market in Russia.

In addition, due to the continued recession of the global economy in recent years, the international oil prices have continued to fall, coupled with the strong economic sanctions of Western countries, which has severely dampened Russia's economic development. At the same time, due to the depreciation of the ruble, the cost of purchasing equipment in Western European countries has increased. At this time, in addition to actively looking for products with higher cost performance, manufacturers in this country prefer low-end CNC products in mainland China, so they import Chinese machine tools the amount accounts for more than 80% of the overall Russian import market. Therefore, mainland China mainly exhibited lower-end machine tools in this exhibition, including ordinary lathes, milling machines, sewing machines, drilling machines, and simple CNC lathes. In addition, there are also exhibits of machine tool components, accessories, and knives, including general tools, tool products, measuring tool products, and machine tool castings. In addition, there are still exhibits in mainland China that the middle and high-end exhibits include CNC lathes with inclined bed, vertical machining centers, CNC vertical grinders, CNC slitting lathes, electrical discharge machining machines, and laser cutting machines.

However, Russian manufacturers' perception of China's machine tool products is lack of accuracy and reliability, and after-sales maintenance services are poor, and even after-sales maintenance services cannot be provided, so many Russian manufacturers cannot find a suitable machine tool product in mainland China. Processing machines, but because of the depreciation of the ruble, it is impossible to purchase machine tool products in Western European countries. In addition, the products provided by local machine tool manufacturers in Russia cannot meet market demand, and some products even cost more than imported products. Russian manufacturers have been unable to obtain processing equipment at suitable cost performance.

Therefore, Russian manufacturers are looking for more cost-effective products, while Taiwan's machine tool products are in line with the needs of Russian manufacturers. However, machine tool manufacturers in Europe and the United States have also noticed the demand status of this market, and they have displayed machine tools products that are in line with the affordability of Russian manufacturers at the exhibition site. In addition, the price is almost close to the price of Taiwan machine tools, which poses a threat to the expansion of Taiwan machine tools in the Russian market.

The current demand trend in Russia is roughly due to the demand for replacement of new equipment by Russian manufacturers due to old equipment. In addition, the Russian government supports the development of the automotive industry and has adopted a policy of extending new car purchases and subsidies to support the development of the automotive market. The economic sanctions imposed by the United States, coupled with the depreciation of the ruble, have weakened the ability to purchase manufacturing equipment, resulting in a slowdown in the amount of consumption of machine tools. Therefore, in 2017, it was still the tenth-largest country in the world in terms of imported machine tools. Furthermore, in the past, the products were mainly purchased from large Western European manufacturers such as Germany and Italy. In recent years, they have been affected by the depreciation of the ruble. Therefore, the relative cost of purchasing equipment in Western European countries has increased. The demand for low-end CNC products in mainland China still accounts for more than 80% of the overall market.

At this stage, in order to overcome the economic crisis, Russia is actively promoting the "import substitution" policy and is committed to the development of industrial diversification, hoping to establish "economic sovereignty." The “import substitution” policy planned by the Russian government is expected to significantly reduce the import dependence of many industries, including food processing machinery and machine tools, light industry, medical machines, electronic and wireless machines, and chemical industries, by 2020. Since machine tool products are also included in Russia's "import substitution" policy, Taiwan machine tool manufacturers should pay attention to which products exported to Russia may be partially replaced by locally produced products in the future, but they must be first Grasp the core content and development trends of this policy. At the same time, during this period, the Russian government successively put forward a series of policies. For example, when the Russian government invited government units and private enterprises to purchase machine tools in 2015, more than 10% of the value must be added to the Russian domestic production, and it will increase every year. 10% origin requirement. However, with the foundation of Russia's current machine tool industry, there is still much room for efforts to achieve this goal. In the short to medium term, it is still necessary to solve the urgent needs of the manufacturing industry at this stage by importing foreign machine tool products.

In addition, Russian manufacturers have been affected by the depreciation of the ruble in recent years, so the cost of purchasing equipment from Western European countries has increased. At this time, in addition to actively looking for more cost-effective products, manufacturers in this country prefer low-end CNC products in mainland China. Therefore, the amount of imported machine tool products in mainland China accounts for more than 80% of the overall Russian import market. However, Russian manufacturers' perception of China's machine tool products is lack of accuracy and reliability, and after-sales maintenance services are poor, and even after-sales maintenance services cannot be provided, so many Russian manufacturers cannot find a suitable machine tool product in mainland China. Processing machines, but because of the depreciation of the ruble, it is impossible to purchase machine tool products in Western European countries. In addition, the products provided by local machine tool manufacturers in Russia cannot meet market demand, and some products even cost more than imported products. Russian manufacturers have been unable to obtain processing equipment at suitable cost performance.

Therefore, when manufacturers in the country are looking for products with high-cost performance, Taiwan's machine tool products are in line with their current needs. However, when the machine tool products enter the Russian market, it is necessary to establish a perfect after-sales maintenance service base and network, but it is really difficult for the vast Russians to implement the maintenance network. Many local agents in Russia have the ability to maintain and maintain equipment, so they can provide the services that customers need later through local agents to reduce the operating costs of Taiwan machine tool manufacturers. And from the perspective of enhancing customer value, providing "manufacturing service" technology, with products with cost-effective advantages, to maintain Taiwan's competitiveness in the Russian machine tool market.

The following will first quantify the current demand for CNC machine tools of the Russian government for the total amount of bids, and then analyze it according to the field of its unit. Finally, list the top three Russian units in the purchase amount for the advanced industry, in formulating business development strategies and seeking partners for reference. What most Taiwanese companies usually care about most is whether local demand is active and how large the demand is. The Russian market is full of rumors such as the collapse of agents and the overdue payment. To understand the demand for CNC machine tools in Russia, the most direct and clear business opportunity is to glimpse from the Russian government bid, targeting the Russian national procurement online, February to April 2018 During the three-month period, the collection is carried out by using CNC machine tools as keywords and accumulated one by one. It can be found that each bid has different practices, some are denominated in US dollars, and other bids are also denominated in euros or rubles.

In complete bidding, its charges include sales and maintenance warranty and personnel education and training. Most of the legal persons and research units collect data from customs imports and exports, but Russian companies such as DMG MORI vigorously promote local Under the current state of assembly, customs data for different markets may not always be able to faithfully present market opportunities and current conditions. Technical support and personnel training costs, as well as maintenance and warranty charges, are included in procurement bids, so it is difficult to peep through customs data. Regarding the procurement of bids from February to April 2018, the total amount of bids related to CNC machine tools of the Russian government has reached a scale of nearly TWD 3 billion. CNC machine tools demand industries ranging from digital 3C to submarines and rocket thrusters. If you search their units one by one and classify them by industry, the budget will account for the top three, with 40.6% engines and gas generators, 7.7% aircraft design and manufacture, 6.8 national defense and petrochemical equipment. It can be clearly seen that aircraft engines and gas turbines account for an absolute majority of the total bid budget, and this phenomenon will be further explained below.

First of all, let’s take a look at the current situation of the composition of Russian civil aircraft. Russia has fully mass-produced Russian passenger aircraft such as the MC-21 and Sukai 100. In terms of the Russian civil aviation market, there are already enough business opportunities, and indirectly predict Russia Demand will continue to emerge for aerospace machine models on the market.

In the field of turbine generators, generally speaking, the main leading brands of gas generators are GE of the United States, Siemens of Germany and Mitsubishi of Japan. In Russia, which has the design energy of aircraft engines, there are also gas generator design and manufacturing technologies. In the face of international sanctions and the impact of the Crimean Siemens gas generator incident, it indirectly forced the Russian government to step up its investment in independent gas generators to produce energy.

Even if the Russian industry has the relevant design and manufacturing capabilities, in 2014, it is still highly dependent on imported equipment to build its natural gas application of gas power generation. However, by 2020, gas-fired generating units will need to reach nearly half of the Russian domestic manufacturing ratio. Therefore, in order to increase production capacity, metal processing equipment and various assembly systems will be continuously invested with national funding and support from Austria, which is a huge business opportunity for machine tools and related smart manufacturing systems. Regardless of whether the technical strength and accuracy of Taiwan's machine tools have reached the level of the aviation and gas generator industry, but if the Russian side already has a clear demand unit, I believe that Taiwanese companies can also step up to catch up and win business opportunities.

With the encouragement of the Russian government and industry today, most Russian players with technical capabilities, whether they are allied with international brands or set up their own brands, have long invested in the direction of real estate and local assembly. Great business opportunities for the system. Regardless of whether the technical strength and accuracy of Taiwan's machine tools have reached the level of the aviation and gas generator industry, but if the Russian side already has a clear demand unit, I believe that Taiwanese companies can also step up to catch up and win business opportunities. According to media information, the international machine tool factories have long been plowing and assembling in Russia to create energy for education, training, and sales. In the face of the five major bids listed in the table above, for most Taiwanese manufacturers, most of the Russian agents currently available do not have sufficient technical capabilities and gold flow operating strength to undertake projects with a level of 100 million yuan.

Russia is a fast-growing new market. Although the import market for machine tools has been declining in recent years and affected by restrictions on exports from Europe and Japan, global machine tool suppliers are still optimistic about the Russian market. Especially with the export of Taiwan machine tools, it has grown significantly in recent years and has now become the fourth-largest machine tool supplier in Russia. The Russian government currently pays special attention to the development of Industry 4.0 in response to European policies and global market trends and gives support to manufacturers who plan to introduce Industry 4.0 applications.