The global economy is picking up slowly, Taiwan's four major manufacturing industries are all growing

The Industrial Technology Research Institute has organized a comprehensive review of domestic and foreign political and economic situations. It has recently released the forecast results of the Taiwan manufacturing boom in 2021. It is predicted that the manufacturing output value in 2021 will be 19.68 trillion Taiwan dollars, and the output value growth rate will be 4.75%. The four major sectors of the manufacturing industry, including information electronics, chemical industry, and people’s livelihood industry, are all growing positively, and they are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for next year’s economy. However, the COVID-19 epidemic hinders the operation of the international supply chain and changes the global division of labor. The Industrial Technology Research Institute reminds that Taiwan should adapt to the global supply chain reorganization and the new trend of transnational decentralized manufacturing, and use the value of smart to build a strong industrial ecological chain and become a global key smart manufacturing partner.

With the gradual unblocking of countries and the restart of economic activities, the global economy has gradually resumed operation since the bottom, governments of all countries have promoted relief and revitalization measures, and the application of emerging technologies has continued to expand; assisting the recovery of domestic private consumer confidence and the expansion of investment by manufacturers. Is expected to increase the growth momentum of Taiwan’s manufacturing output.

However, due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the large-scale blockade measures in the first half of the year led to the rapid contraction of global production, consumption, investment, and trade, and the economic prosperity has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level. As winter is approaching, the pneumonia epidemic has shown signs of resurgence in many countries, and it will be the biggest uncertainty factor in the global economy in 2021. In addition, the economic and technological policy trends after the US presidential election, as well as the US-China trade war and technological disputes are still unresolved. The progress of bilateral follow-up negotiations may affect the production and marketing activities of Taiwan industry manufacturers and still requires close attention.

The prediction results of the four major industries of the manufacturing industry:

The global economic recovery is beneficial to the performance of Taiwan's manufacturing output value.

• Metal electromechanical industry:
  Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the World Steel Association (WSA) estimates that global steel demand will drop to 1.654 billion tons in 2020, and is expected to gradually recover to 1.717 billion tons in 2021, while the international agriculture and construction machinery and automobile industries are moderate the recovery will drive the growth of the output value of Taiwan's metal electromechanical industry. It is predicted that the metal electromechanical output value will reach 5.19 trillion yuan in 2021, and the growth rate will be 4.28%.
• Information and electronics industry:
  With the promotion of emerging applications such as 5G, AI artificial intelligence, high-performance computing and the Internet of Things, and the international competitive advantages of Taiwan's leading semiconductor manufacturers in high-end manufacturing processes, it is expected that the production and sales of the information electronics industry will maintain stable growth. However, the U.S.-China trade war and technological disputes have not yet settled, which is the main risk affecting the industry's production and sales prospects. It is expected that the information and electronics industry will reach 8.00 trillion yuan in 2021, and the growth rate will be 3.55%.
• Chemical industry:
  OPEC's commitment to reduce production, the lifting of city lockdowns in various countries, and the slow recovery of downstream market demand have driven oil prices to rise slightly, but the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that oil prices will remain relatively low in 2021. The implementation of rescue and revitalization measures by various countries, the warming of China's economic activities, and the rising price of chemical industry products have widened the spread of product spreads, which is conducive to the simultaneous growth of Taiwan's chemical industry output value and profit. It is estimated that the output value of the chemical industry in 2021 will increase significantly compared with 2020. In 2021, the output value of the chemical industry will reach 4.05 trillion yuan, and the growth rate will be 9.35%.
• People's Livelihood Industry:
  The COVID-19 epidemic hinders the operation of the international supply chain and the low demand in the global consumer market has brought a significant impact on Taiwanese textile manufacturers. With the resumption of production in various countries and the gradual recovery of consumer confidence, it is conducive to the expansion of the transportation, accommodation, and catering industry chain, which is expected to inject the growth of people's livelihood industry. It is predicted that the people's livelihood industry will reach 2.45 trillion yuan in 2021, and the growth rate will be 2.50%.

In 2021, Taiwan's manufacturing industry must make good use of its industrial advantages to accelerate the global deployment

Taiwan's manufacturing industry will face two challenges in 2021: First, the epidemic has accelerated the accelerated popularization of emerging technologies, making digital transformation a manifestation. In the post-epidemic phase, attention should be paid to how to use digital technology to optimize operations and create business opportunities, so that digital transformation can be combined with smart strategies to realize a "smart economy". Second, the US-China trade and technology war is still ongoing, affecting global supply chain diversion and technology competition. The core of technological competition is a talent competition, and the talent policy of how to train and retain talents needs to be planned and implemented in advance.

Faced with the challenge of this trend, the Industrial Technology Research Institute made recommendations:

First, the government and enterprises work together to integrate upstream and downstream to create "Smart Taiwan" from the inside out. The advent of the 5G era will accelerate the application of various emerging technologies and promote cross-industry and cross-domain integration of industries. The central and local governments can work together to promote economic strategies centered on "local characteristic industries" and develop innovative applications such as smart retail, smart agriculture, smart health, and smart energy. The central government provides funding resources and the local governments provide empirical fields and needs. Combining Taiwan's industrial software and hardware manufacturing and system integration capabilities, it develops the competitiveness of Taiwan's manufacturing.
Second, use of Taiwan’s strong energy to build a strong industrial ecological chain and become a key partner in the global industrial chain.

• Facing the trend of global manufacturing diversion, in addition to establishing a short-chain production system, it is also necessary to control the total cost
• Faced with the impact of disasters, continuous operations continue to chain
• In international competition, it can create profits
• In global manufacturing, we are pursuing uniqueness and building an innovative technology application ecosystem with high added value and international competitiveness.

In addition, as the U.S.-China trade war and key technological competition are still ongoing, Taiwan needs to make good use of the complementary features of Taiwan’s and U.S. industries in scientific research to promote strategic industrial cooperation between the two parties. The United States attaches great importance to the revitalization of the manufacturing industry and takes the lead in mastering advanced technologies (AI artificial intelligence, 5G biotechnology, advanced materials, etc.). Taiwan is a major member of the global manufacturing industry and has an international competitive advantage at the high-end manufacturing level. A reliable partner in the global supply chain. It is recommended that the government can make good use of the complementary characteristics of Taiwan and the US industry and scientific research to promote bilateral industrial strategic cooperation. The government will assist in building a platform to promote industry and academic research institutions in Taiwan and the United States. Cooperate in high-end manufacturing, forward-looking technology research and development, and talent cultivation.

The latest observations on the medical device industry:

The epidemic has driven the demand for medical materials for epidemic prevention. In 2021, the output value of the medical equipment industry will continue to grow by 5.2% to 6.1%, and the value-added rate will perform better than the average. However, in the post-epidemic era, new service models have been launched, and medical materials-related laws and regulations have become more and more stringent. This factor will be a future challenge.
Looking back at 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic spreads globally. Taiwan has a high-quality medical system and medical material system, which will play a powerful role during the epidemic, especially diagnosis and monitoring (thermometers, ear thermometers, physiological monitoring devices) and other personal protection Medical materials (masks, protective clothing), the output value of medical consumables has grown substantially due to the surge in demand, and there is still enough energy to expand overseas markets after meeting domestic demand. In the second half of 2020, due to the re-emergence of the second wave of epidemics in Europe, India, Brazil, and other regions, the global economic recovery is clouded. The rising number of unemployed people affects personal income and terminal demand. The procurement order of medical products that are less related to personal health protection is going after going on. Under the impact of the epidemic, Taiwan's main exporters of medical equipment such as contact lenses, blood glucose meters, and mobility aids have been weak.

Overall, the output value of Taiwan's medical device industry in 2020 will be approximately 123 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5% compared to the same period last year. The performance of the added value rate is oriented to the continued high value and niche market efforts. In 2020, my country's medical device industry is estimated to reach 38.8%, which is about 10% higher than the average level of Taiwan's overall manufacturing industry. It has a high development potential.

Looking forward to 2021, countries will invest a lot of effort in vaccine research and development, but the popularization of vaccines is generally predicted to be in the second half of 2021. Therefore, personal protection-related epidemic prevention materials (masks, protective clothing), quick screening reagents, and medical care systems for disease diagnosis throughout the year (Clinical thermometers, ear thermometers, physiological monitoring devices, epidemic prevention robots), remote health monitoring devices, and other market growth momentum continue to be optimistic.

In terms of negative factors, because the number of daily diagnoses in the world is still reaching a new high, some European countries are discussing the second wave of control. Germany and France have successively announced the closure of cities for one month. Whether the unemployed can return to employment is still variable; The recovery of terminal demand has planted variables and impacted my country's main medical products such as contact lenses and blood glucose meters. Secondly, "safe social distance" will be the new economic normal in the post-epidemic era. In order to ensure the safety of public health and epidemic prevention, medical treatment services may shift to communication diagnosis and treatment, telemedicine, and in-home medical treatment, and personal medical equipment and service experience increased demand will prompt manufacturers to shift to customizing a small number of diversified medical products. In addition, with the rapid development of the application of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence in the field of biomedicine, medical institutions in various countries have proposed innovative measures for digital medical equipment regulations to cope with the management challenges brought about by product development. With stricter regulations and verifications, the medical materials industry will be innovated to eliminate the old and leave new entrants.
Taking the positive and negative factors together, the Industrial Technology Research Institute predicts that Taiwan's medical device industry will continue to grow by 5.2 to 6.1% in 2021, with an output value of 130 billion yuan and an added value rate of nearly 40%.

2021 medical device industry strategy recommendations:

Focus on the post-epidemic trend, adhere to the test of new regulations, and strive to enhance user service experience

In the current COVID-19 epidemic, Taiwan has successfully integrated biomedicine, information and communications, and machinery manufacturing industries, and has also spawned innovative business opportunities such as zero-touch, unmanned, and digital healthcare. Taiwan’s medical device industry should seize the opportunity to expand Taiwan’s position in the global supply chain.

1. Focus on the post-epidemic trend: Under the consideration of epidemic prevention safety, consumers will increase their health awareness of health care, disease prevention, etc., communicate and interact through online tools, or use robots for unmanned services. Therefore, medical products such as remote diagnosis and treatment, smart medical care, big data health services, zero-contact physiological monitoring, home care, and personal protective equipment will be key risk control projects after the epidemic. Track the development trend of society after the epidemic and develop its own superior products and services.
2. Adhering to the test of new regulations: The innovation of digital medical device regulations and the adoption of new EU regulations (MDR/IVDR) for medical devices in Europe will speed up the elimination of the weak and strong medical materials industries in various countries if the Taiwanese manufacturers can actively adhere to it. Passing the test of MDR/IVDR will have the opportunity to receive customer orders from small European factories and China manufacturers, increase market share in the EU and expand sales.
3. Improve user service experience: In the post-epidemic era, more emphasis will be placed on personalized health and services. Through cross-industry technical cooperation, digital technology will be used to introduce R&D value-added, and the development of precision medicine, digital care, and smart medical care will provide users with a high value product and service experience. Such as the integration of information and communication technology with medical materials, the development of remote diagnosis and treatment and precision medicine; or the cross-industry application of metal processing to the field of medical materials, upgrading to an orthopedics/dental medical community. Develop smart medical and smart hospitals and improve the quality of medical services through the added value of technologies such as health big data and AI artificial intelligence in disease diagnosis, treatment, and prediction.