The Global Epidemic Slows Down and The Economy Gradually Recovers
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The Global Epidemic Slows Down and The Economy Gradually Recovers

The recent epidemic in Europe and the United States has gradually slowed down. Countries have begun to plan to gradually restart economic activities, which will help demand to recover and manufacturing activities in manufacturing will gradually increase.
Published: Jun 17, 2020
The Global Epidemic Slows Down and The Economy Gradually Recovers

On the domestic front, affected by the sharp decline in the export market demand, coupled with the sharp fall in international oil prices in April, manufacturing companies were pessimistic about the current month's boom. However, the epidemic situation is expected to gradually weaken, and demand will return to the right track, making the manufacturers to the next six months The outlook for the economy has improved slightly; the epidemic in the service industry has affected the public's willingness to go out and made the retail industry and the hospitality industry pessimistic about the current month's economy. However, with the gradual loosening of domestic social activities and the government's stimulus package to enter the market in time, it helps Drive domestic consumption demand and raise the view of the service industry manufacturers on the future prosperity; the construction industry was hit by the epidemic situation and the housing market was buying gas. The transaction volume in April declined significantly, making the real estate industry's view of the current month's sentiment pessimistic, while the construction industry benefited from the construction project has been completed, and the final payment of relevant contractors is gradually concentrated. Therefore, the view of the current month’s boom is flat. As the domestic epidemic situation approaches, the conditions of ultra-low mortgage interest rates, abundant funds, and the prominent role of investment hedging are expected. Therefore, most of the real estate industry is optimistic about the prosperity of the next six months. According to the survey results of this hospital, after the model calculation, the operating climate test points of the manufacturing and construction industries declined in April, and the operating climate test points of the service industry turned up.

  1. International situation
    • United States

      The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce announced that the GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2020 was 0.3%. Compared with the same period last year, the US private consumption growth rate for the first quarter was 0.4%, and private investment was -4.8%. Also, the growth rate of US exports of goods and services was -2.9%, and the growth rate of imports was -5.8%. Affected by the epidemic, major international forecasting agencies expressed pessimism about the US economic growth in 2020. In May, IHS Markit, EIU, and UN predicted that the US economic growth rate in 2020 will be -7.3%, -4.0%, and -4.8%, respectively.

      Regarding the performance of the US job market, the US unemployment rate released in April 2020 by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics was 14.7%, up 10.3 percentage points from the March unemployment rate. In terms of the inflation rate, the US consumer price index (CPI) annual growth rate in April 2020 was 0.3%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The annual rate of increase in core CPI after deducting food and energy prices is 1.4%. In response to the impact of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 0-0.25%, with quantitative easing (QE) measures without any upper limit.

      As for the recent economic outlook of the US economy, a reference to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) announced the April 2020 manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) of the United States was 41.5 points, a decrease of 7.6 from the previous month. point. Besides, the ISM's Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (NMI) for April 2020 was 41.8 points, down 10.7 points from the previous month's index. The U.S. PMI and NMI values have declined significantly, meaning that the recent U.S. economic boom is quite pessimistic.

    • Europe

      The Euro stat released the annual growth rates of GDP growth in the EU 27 countries and the 19-euro area countries in the first quarter of 2020, respectively -2.6% and -3.2%. Most of the major European economies experienced negative growth in the first quarter. The annual growth rates of GDP growth in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the Brexit United Kingdom in the first quarter were -2.3%, -5.4%, and -4.8, respectively %, -4.1% and -1.6%. The impact of the epidemic in Europe is also quite severe, leading major international forecasting agencies to express pessimism about the economic growth of the Eur ozone in 2020. IHS Markit, EIU, and UN-predicted in May that the euro zone economic growth rate in 2020 will be -8.6%, -8.0%, and -5.8%, respectively.

      In terms of the performance of the European job market, the unemployment rate in the Eur ozone in March 2020 was 7.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Euro stat also noted that the unemployment rate in March rose, reflecting the European countries’ beginning to respond to the outbreak Control measures mean that the European job market will face a greater impact. Also, Euro stat announced that the annual growth rate of the Eur ozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April 2020 was 0.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Demand in the European market is weak, and the impact of the epidemic is severe. The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to respond with monetary easing measures.

      As for the European economic outlook, referring to the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) published by the European Commission, the ESI for the EU and the Eur ozone in April were 65.8 and 67 points, down 28.8 and 27.2 points from the previous month, respectively. The ESIs in the EU and the Eur ozone are the global financial tsunami, the lowest since March 2009.

    • Japan

      The Cabinet Office of Japan announced that the annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2020 was -2.0%, which was a further 1.3 percentage points decrease after the annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2019 was reduced to -0.7% due to the increase in consumption tax. The main reason for the decline was The epidemic of New Coronary Pneumonia began to spread in February, and exports, consumption, and capital investment fell sharply, giving rise to two consecutive quarters of negative annual GDP growth. Due to the emergency announced in Japan from April to June, it is expected that there will be further reductions if people do not go out and eat during the festive holidays. The Ministry of Finance announced that imports and exports in April were 6,132.7 billion yen and 5,2,023 trillion yen respectively, both decreased from the same period in 2019, respectively -7.2% and -21.9%, which was a continuous 12-month and 17-month decline. IHS Markit quoted the JIBUN BANK Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). In April, the demand for new coronary pneumonia caused a sharp decline in output and the largest decline in output since March 2009. As the supplier closed operations, the supply chain became chaotic. Input shortages, order cancellations caused sales to decline the most in 11 years, and some companies also experienced layoffs, resulting in a PMI index of 41.9, a decrease of 2.9 points from March.

      In terms of the trend of leading indicators, Japan’s leading indicator was 83.8 points in March 2020, down 8.1 points from February. Only the inventory index and M2 annual growth rate of final demand and industrial production finance increased from the previous month, including TOPIX Indexes such as plant prices, SME sales forecasts, consumer attitudes, and the number of recruits (excluding college graduates) showed a drop. Therefore, looking forward to Japan's future economic performance, the 3-month moving average of the leading indicator came to 88.8 points, a decrease of 2.54 points from February, and the 7-month moving average reached 90.5 points, a decrease of 1.25 points from February. The latest forecast of IHS Markit's economic growth rate in 2020 is -5.54%, down 2.21 percentage points from April.

    • China

      According to the announcement of the National Bureau of Statistics of China in April 2020, the annual growth rate of industrial added value above the national scale (industrial enterprises with the main business income of 20 million yuan and above) is 3.9%. The mining industry, manufacturing industry and electricity, heat, gas and The production and supply of water increased by 0.3%, 5.0%, and 0.2% respectively over the same period in 2019; in terms of major industries, the increase was in the order of special equipment manufacturing (14.3%), computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing (11.8%) and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing (9.0%), and metal products industry (8.9%). In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached RMB 2817.8 billion in April 2020, an increase of -7.5% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the annual growth rates of catering revenue and retail sales of commodities were -31.1% and -4.6%, respectively. In terms of investment, the annual growth rate of fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to April 2020 is -10.3%, of which the annual growth rate of private fixed-asset investment is -13.3%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from the decrease from January to March. Besides, the General Administration of Customs announced that the trade volume in April 2020 reached US$355.22 billion, a 5.0% decline from the same period in 2019. Among them, exports reached US$2,002.8, an increase of 3.5%, imports were US$154.94 billion, a decline of 14.2%, and a trade surplus of US$45.34 billion. The top three export regions are the European Union (16.1%), the United States (16.0%), and ASEAN (14.4%), with total exports accounting for 46.5%.

  2. Domestic situation

    Firstly, in terms of foreign trade, affected by the outbreak of the new corona virus epidemic, many countries have implemented strict blockade control measures, which have affected real economic activities. In addition, the international crude oil and commodity prices have plummeted, which has led to a general decline in the export of domestic traditional industries. Its products, machinery, plastics and rubber products, chemicals, transportation vehicles, textiles, and mineral products all showed double-digit declines in export value. However, driven by factors such as emerging technology, long-distance business opportunities, and the return of production lines to Taiwan, the performance of electronics and telecommunications is still strong. The annual growth rate of exports of electronic components, information communication, and audio-visual products has rebounded. The overall export year in April The growth rate increased from -0.70% last month to -1.26%; in terms of imports, although the annual growth rate of imports of agricultural and industrial raw materials has changed from positive to negative, it has benefited from the rebound in demand for memory and ICT equipment, making the annual growth rate of capital equipment imports. From negative to positive, the overall annual growth rate of imports in April increased slightly from 0.43% to 0.49%. In total, exports from January to April 2020 increased by 2.43% compared with the same period in 2019, imports increased by 2.70%, and exports exceeded US$11.786 billion, a slight increase of 0.37%.

    In terms of prices, the international oil price plummeted in April, which led to a decline in fuel costs, which fell by 35.50% and had an impact on the total price index of -1.01 percentage points. In addition, the global epidemic is heating up, the number of people coming to Taiwan has plummeted, and the willingness of Chinese to travel has been greatly reduced. The industry has lowered hotel accommodation fees and domestic tour group fees, which has caused entertainment expenses to fall by 3.72% compared with the same month last year, and this month’s overall index impact was -0.29 percentage points In April 2020, the overall annual CPI growth rate expanded from -0.03% to -0.97% last month. The CPI has shown negative growth for three consecutive months. The core CPI annual growth rate has also shrunk from 0.32% to 0.05%. The impact of the international oil price and the price of commodities fell sharply, and the impact of lower prices of earth and rock and mineral products, petroleum and coal products, chemical materials and their products and pharmaceuticals, expanded the overall annual WPI growth rate from April-7.43% to -10.75%. The cumulative annual growth rate of CPI from January to April this year is 0.17%, and the annual growth rate of WPI is -6.51%.

    In the labor market, the unemployment rate in April was 4.03%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points from the previous month, and an increase of 0.36 percentage points compared with the same month of the previous year. The total average unemployment rate from January to April 2020 was 3.77% and was recently affected by the epidemic. Domestic and foreign demand, as of mid-May, the number of employees and employees negotiated to reduce the number of working hours reached more than 21,000 people, which is the most since the financial crisis. From the perspective of industry, the number of implemented companies is the largest in wholesale and retail In terms of the number of implementers, the largest number in the metal mechanical and electrical industry shows that the impact of the epidemic has spread from the service industry to the manufacturing industry. In terms of salary, the total salary in March 2020 was 47,750 yuan, an increase of 2.84% compared with the same month in 2019, and the recurring salary in March was 42,309 yuan, an increase of 1.56% compared with the same month in 2019. After rising factors, the average real recurring salary in the first quarter of 2020 was RMB 41,341, an increase of 1.38% from 2019.

    In the domestic financial market, the market has ample funds, the central bank's 2-year fixed deposit rate (NCD) bid interest rate has reached a new low, and the demand for borrowing from various banks has been low. In April 2020, the overnight interest rate of the financial industry was highest at 0.092%, and the lowest was 0.074%, the weighted average interest rate was 0.079%, a decrease of 0.065 percentage points from March and a decrease of 0.110 percentage points from the same period in 2019. As for the stock market, the newly confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in some European countries seem to have slowed down, which has made the market less concerned about the spread of the epidemic. In addition, the domestic wafer foundry manufacturers’ first-quarter earnings and future prospects are better than expected. Shares again stood at 10,000 points, and the Taiwan Weighted Index closed at 10,992.14 points at the end of April, up 13.23%, with an average daily turnover of 167.528 billion yuan. In terms of the exchange rate, the outlook of major domestic technology companies is better than expected. In addition, Europe and the United States have begun to plan to gradually unblock measures. The risk aversion has cooled down and funds have flowed to emerging Asia, driving the NTD to rise sharply. The exchange rate closed at US$29.80 at the end of the month. 1.49%.

  3. Outlook

    Observe the economic performance of the major countries in the first quarter. The new crown pneumonia epidemic raged the world. Most countries adopted strict blockade measures to prevent the spread of the epidemic, which led to the near-stoppage of economic demand. The four major economies in the world (the United States, China, Europe, and Japan) GDP growth was weak in the first quarter of this year. The US GDP grew by only 0.3% in the first quarter, and other economies are simultaneously experiencing a recession. To this end, major international forecasting agencies have substantially revised down the 2020 global economic outlook, and expect the global economy to fall into recession this year. Despite the recent slowdown in the global epidemic, many countries have begun to gradually lift the blockade measures. However, before the epidemic has been completely controlled, consumer confidence in the consumer cannot be quickly restored, and manufacturing activities are also due to weak global demand and enterprises after the resumption of work. The outbreak of the epidemic occurred again, making the overall resumption of work slow.

    On the domestic front, with the spread of the new crown epidemic in the world, countries have adopted strict control measures such as country lock-in, curfew, and foot restraint, which has caused economic activities to nearly halting, which has jointly impacted the demand for domestic traditional products. Last April, the international oil price plummeted, which made the iron and steel basic industry and chemical industry manufacturers with higher weights have a higher proportion of the month's prosperity. In the electronics industry, although the epidemic has promoted business opportunities such as remote office, remote teaching, and remote video, it has helped drive the demand for data centers, servers, NB, and other products. However, smartphones, automotive electronics, consumer electronics, etc. The slowdown in demand has made the manufacturers of the electronic machinery industry more divergent in their views on the current month's boom. Nearly 40% of the manufacturers in the electronic machinery industry are optimistic about the current month's boom, but half of the manufacturers are bad about the current month's boom. As for the outlook for the economy in the next six months, as the epidemic in Europe and the United States gradually slows down, countries are restarting their economic activities in stages, and demand is expected to gradually recover. Although most manufacturers still have a flat and worse view on the economy in the next six months, they are pessimistic or the level of optimism has improved significantly compared to the survey last month.

    In the service industry, although the domestic epidemic prevention is appropriate, the public's willingness to go out is still low, coupled with the lack of attention from international tourism business customers, and most restaurants respond to the new government epidemic prevention guidelines, reducing the number of visitors and increasing the dining distance, making retail, catering, and tourism Revenues are declining, so more than 70% of the retail and hospitality industry is pessimistic about the current month's prosperity. However, the securities industry benefited from the outstanding performance of the stock market in April. Significantly improved, so most securities companies are optimistic about the current month. As for the prosperity in the next six months, although tourists visiting Taiwan may not be able to recover in the short term, with the gradual loosening of domestic social activities, coupled with the hope that the government's stimulus package will enter the market in time, it will help stimulate the public's domestic consumer demand, Therefore, nearly 70% of the retail industry is optimistic about the prosperity of the next six months, while the proportion of the restaurant and tourism industry is optimistic about the future.

    In the construction industry, despite the delay in the progress of the grouting operation of the sub-standards of infrastructure construction, fortunately, the construction projects such as Xibin Highway and Taichung MRT have been completed, and the final payment of the relevant contractors is gradually concentrated, so the construction industry manufacturers Views on the current month's boom are fairly flat. In addition, due to the advanced deployment of government investment in public construction, it is relatively beneficial to the future performance of new projects and the progress of implementation of public projects. However, considering that the supply of sand and gravel is still relatively tight in the short term, more than 70% of manufacturers believe that the construction industry in the next six months is still Flat. The epidemic has impacted the global economy, and the impact on the housing market has gradually emerged. The people have temporarily suspended their home purchase plans, and the wait-and-see atmosphere has increased. As a result, the monthly growth rate and annual growth rate of the number of houses transferred on April 6 have all turned into negative growth, so it exceeded More than half of the real estate industry bears a bad view of the current month, but as the domestic epidemic situation stabilizes, and some old cases have a slight concession, attracting some investment to increase property demand, and even long-term homeowners have hit record lows and sufficient funds due to domestic mortgage rates. In addition, the demand for rigid housing purchases and the flow of funds still support the momentum of the housing market transaction, so about 40% of the real estate industry is still optimistic about the future performance.

    According to the survey results of this hospital, the operating climate test points of the manufacturing industry and the construction industry declined simultaneously in April, which was the same as the four consecutive months of decline. However, the decline has been significantly reduced, while the service industry business climate test point has turned up, but the increase is limited.

    In the manufacturing survey section, according to the results of the April 2020 questionnaire survey conducted by the hospital on manufacturing manufacturers, the ratio of the current (4) monthly boom was "good" was 21.7%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from 27.2% in March. The ratio of the current month's boom was 54.3%, an increase of 19.0 percentage points from March's 35.3%. Among them, the proportion of traditional industries such as the basic steel industry and the transportation industry was nearly 80%, while the chemical industry, textile industry, The apparel, and apparel industry even exceeded 80%; the overall manufacturers' observations on the prosperity of the next six months showed that the manufacturers were optimistic about the increase from 18.1% in March 2020 to 24.8% in the month, and the bullish ratio decreased by 5.6 from 40.5% in March This percentage point reached 34.9% of the current month. Although most manufacturers’ views on the business situation in the next six months remained mostly flat and worse, the degree of pessimism or optimism had improved significantly compared with the survey last month.

    According to the survey results of the above manufacturing industry's ratio of business sentiment views for the current month and the next half year, after the model calculation of this hospital, the manufacturing business climate test point in April 2020 was 81.75 points, which was 0.80 points less than the 82.55 points revised last month. The new low since February 2009 has been falling for four consecutive months, but the decline has been significantly reduced compared to the previous month.

    In the survey of the service industry, the higher the proportion of the current (4) month's sentiment is the transportation and storage industry, and more than 70% of the retail and restaurant industry manufacturers are bad about the performance of the current month; More than half of the retail industry is optimistic about the prosperity of the next six months.

    According to the survey results of the above service industry's sentiment on the prosperity, after the model calculation of this hospital, the service climate test point for the service industry in April 2020 was 82.37 points, an increase of 0.40 points from the revised 81.97 points in the previous month, ending the previous three consecutive months of decline The situation turned upward.

    In the construction industry, although the progress of the grouting operation has been delayed for each sub-standard of infrastructure construction, fortunately, the projects under construction such as Xibin Highway and Taichung MRT have been completed, and the final payment of relevant contractors is gradually concentrated, so 2020 The outlook for the construction industry was maintained in April 2014. Looking ahead, continuing the government's advanced deployment in public construction investment will be relatively beneficial to the future performance of new construction and contracting of public works and implementation progress. However, considering the short-term supply of sand and stone is still relatively tight, so More than 70% of the manufacturers believe that the construction industry will remain flat in the next six months.

    In terms of immovable industries, the monthly growth rate of domestic transfers of six capital buildings in April 2020 was -11.2%, due to the worsening of the global economic outlook caused by Europe and the United States becoming a severely affected area, and the increase in the number of infected people who moved outside the country. There is a wait-and-see situation in the housing market; as the domestic epidemic in May has come to an end, coupled with conditions such as ultra-low mortgage interest rates, ample funds, and a prominent role in investment hedging, long-term home purchase, and rigid deferred buying will be Expected to be gradually released.

    According to the survey results of the above construction industry's views on the prosperity, after the model calculation of this hospital, the business climate test point of this construction industry in April 2020 was 84.36 points, down 1.43 points from 85.79 points in March, although it has fallen for four consecutive months Situation, the decline has been significantly reduced.

  4. Comprehensive analysis and judgment
    • The industry turned bad in April, and the industry that looks bad in the next six months:
      Wood and bamboo products industry, printing industry, chemical industry, petrochemical raw materials, petroleum and coal products, rubber products, ceramics, and their products, iron, and steel basic industries, metal products, screws and nuts, metal building structures and components industry, machinery equipment manufacturing and repair Industry, metal tool machine industry, industrial machinery industry, audio-visual electronic products, auto parts, educational supplies industry, restaurant, and tourism industry, telecommunications service industry
    • The industry turned bad in April and the industries that are optimistic in the next six months compared with April:
      Construction investment, retail
    • Turned bad in April, and maintain the flat industry in the next half year:
      Plastic and rubber raw materials, man-made fiber manufacturing, chemical products, plastic products, electronic components, transportation tools, automotive manufacturing, locomotive manufacturing, locomotive parts manufacturing, precision equipment, wholesale, transportation, and warehousing
    • The industry remained flat in April, and the industry that looks bad compared with April in the next six months:
      The feed industry, paper industry, glass and its products, metal molds, bicycle parts manufacturing
    • In April, the industry is flat, and the industries that are optimistic in the next six months compared with April:
      Frozen food, oil, flour and milling, construction industry, general civil engineering industry
    • Flat in April, the industry will remain flat in the next six months:
      General manufacturing, food industry, non-alcoholic beverages, textile industry, spinning industry, weaving, garments and apparel, leather and fur products, electrical machinery, electrical machinery equipment manufacturing, wire and cable, household appliances, electronic machinery, communication machinery equipment
    • The industries that improved in April and will be worse in the next six months than in April:
      Bicycle manufacturing
    • The industry that turned better in April, and the industries that are optimistic in the next six months compared with April:
      Cement and its products, securities industry
    • The industry turned better in April and the industry will remain flat in the next six months:
      Slaughtering, non-metallic minerals, data storage and processing equipment, banking, insurance
Published by Jun 17, 2020 Source :tier

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