Analyze the Recent Performance of the Russian Machine Tool Market

In 2017, Russian manufacturers demanded a replacement of new equipment due to obsolete equipment, coupled with the Russian government’s support for the development of the automobile industry, and extended new car purchase and subsidy policies to support the development of the automobile market, so the consumption value of Russian machine tools increased by 25.8%. However, continued economic sanctions in Western Europe and the United States, as well as the slowdown in the global economic recovery, and the decline in crude oil prices, have slowed down the increase in the consumption of machine tools. The growth rate of machine tool consumption in 2018 was compared with that in 2017. Slow down, with a growth rate of only 5.2%. However, in 2019, affected by the continued slowdown of the global economy and the destocking, the cumulative import value of machine tools from January to May decreased by 11.9% compared with the same period last year.

Russia joins hands with China to breakthrough

Regarding the economic sanctions in Europe and the United States, Russia has not only adopted "anti-sanctions" measures to prohibit the import of European and American foods into Russia but also adopted an "import substitution" strategy to further support the development of Russia's related industries and drive the increase in the output of food, raw materials, and chemicals. To implement the import substitution policy. Russia, in addition to fighting back against Western sanctions, signed the "Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on the win-win cooperation and deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation" with China in June 2019. It will work with China to develop land and natural resource mining in the Far East, as well as strengthen cooperation with China through special tariff measures, to break through Western economic sanctions, and seek new outlets for the country's economy in the Asian market. And in the signing of this cooperation statement, further increase the amount of energy output to China, to alleviate the dilemma of Russia's current economic environment.

In 2018, the global consumption of machine tools was US$91.79 billion, an increase of 4.6% from 2017. Although the amount of global machine tool consumption continues to be shrouded in the "new mediocre economy", and the global machine tool terminal application market products (such as automobiles, aviation, 3C and mechanical components, etc.) are in a state of saturation, plus the global machine tool China, the largest consumer market, has slowed down the growth of its manufacturing industry due to the US-China trade war. Therefore, since the second half of 2018, the world has continued to invest in manufacturing equipment.

In 2017, Russian manufacturers demanded the replacement of new equipment due to obsolete equipment, coupled with the Russian government’s support for the development of the automobile industry, and extended new car purchase and subsidy policies to support the development of the automobile market, so the consumption value of Russian machine tools increased by 25.8%. However, continued economic sanctions in Western Europe and the United States, as well as the slowdown in the global economic recovery, and the decline in crude oil prices, have slowed the increase in consumption of machine tools. Therefore, the growth rate of machine tool consumption in 2018 has slowed down compared to 2017, with a growth rate of only 5.2% and consumption of US$1.81 billion, making it the tenth-largest machine tool consumer market in the world.

Further analysis of the changes in the Russian machine tool market, we can find that the country's overall machine tool demand has shown a growing trend in the past three years. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2016 to 2018 was 15.0%. Besides, the average output value of Russian machine tools in the past three years is about 550 million US dollars, and the average annual output value is showing a growing trend, with a CAGR of 16.7% from 2016 to 2018. Similarly, the import value has also shown a trend of substantial growth. The average import value in the past three years is about 1.05 billion US dollars, and the CAGR is 35.1%. As for the export value, there is also a growing trend. The average export value in the past three years is about 64 million US dollars.

According to the aforementioned data analysis results, in addition to the products provided by domestic manufacturers to meet its demand for machine tools, Russia also mainly imports European regions such as Germany, Switzerland, and Italy, Asian regions such as Taiwan, South Korea, and China, and the Americas. Machine tools from the United States in the region meet the needs of the Russian defense industry, aerospace components, automobiles, heavy industry, energy, shipbuilding and metal manufacturing, and other related machine tool applications. However, it can be seen from the import dependence and export ratio of the Russian market that the import ratio in the past three years has increased year by year, and has exceeded 70% of the country’s market consumption. This shows that the amount of machine tool products used in the country exceeds 70%. import. The export ratio remained at 10-12%, and the growth rate was only 2.3%, indicating that most of the machine tools produced by local Russian manufacturers or foreign-invested companies and joint ventures that set up factories in the region are for the needs of the Russian market. As for Russia’s main exporting countries, Kazakhstan, India, and Belarus, South Korea squeezed out Belarus and became Russia’s third-largest exporter in 2018.

Defense, automotive, and aerospace industries drive demand for Russian machine tools

Further statistics and analysis of Russian customs data show that Russia has experienced a financial tsunami in 2009, and its import value has grown year by year since 2010. In 2014, it reached US$2,391 million, a slight increase of 1.6% from 2013, but still not as high as the peak in 2008. However, since 2015, the global economy has been dominated by the new mediocre economic form of low economic growth rate, low-interest rates, and low prices, as well as the decline of crude oil prices and economic sanctions in Europe and the United States. The amount of imports from Russia from 2015 to 2016 is compared In 2014, the value of imports fell by 51.4%, to 17.1 billion, and 1.16 billion US dollars, respectively. The value of imports in 2017 showed a substantial increase, up 27.7% from 2016, and the growth rate of import value slowed down to 6.3% in 2018.

However, in recent years, Russia still has a great demand for machine tool products. The main sources of demand are the defense industry, automobile and aviation, aerospace industry, and infrastructure construction. Due to the slowdown of the global economy and destocking in 2019, the cumulative import value from January to May decreased by 11.9% compared with the same period last year.

Observe the main imported machine types of machine tools from 2008 to 2018 in Russia. The machines with the highest import value are metal cutting processing centers, single-station, and multi-station combined machines, with an import value of 306.6 million US dollars, accounting for 19.4% of the total import value; The second-ranked metal pressure processing machine, with an import value of 287.9 million U.S. dollars, accounting for 18.2% of the total import value; and the third-ranked "metal cutting lathe", with an import value of 239.5 million U.S. dollars, accounting for the total import value. 15.2% of the amount.

The top three types of machine tool imports in Russia from January to May 2019 are "metal cutting lathes" accounting for 17.2% of the total import value, and their import value is 92.8 million U.S. dollars. The next is "metal pressure processing machines", Its import value is 91.2 million US dollars, accounting for 16.9% of the total import value. As for the third-largest machine type in terms of import value, "metal cutting machining center, single station, and multi-station combined machine", its import value was US$80.1 million, accounting for 14.9% of the total import value. In terms of the amount of imported Taiwanese machine tools from Russia, the three models of "metal cutting lathes", "metal cutting machining centers, single-station, and multi-station combined machines" and "metal pressure processing machines" are the largest in 2019. The import value from January to May was 21.2, 15.9, and 3.4 million U.S. dollars, accounting for 43.2%, 32.5%, and 6.9% of Russia's total import value to Taiwan.

Further, analyze Russia’s importing countries in the past five years to understand the share of Russia’s main importing countries in the local machine tool market. The country with the largest import market share from 2014 to 2018 in Germany and the amount of imported German machine tools accounted for the overall the average proportion of Russian machine tool imports is about 29.5%, with a share of 21.5% in 2018 and an import value of US$340 million. The country with the second-largest import value is China. In the past five years, the import value of machine tools from this country accounted for about 12.8% of the total import value of Russian machine tools. The share in 2018 was 17.2%, and the import value was 270 million dollars. Italy is Russia’s third-largest importer, with an import value of US$198 million in 2018, and its average share of 13.1% in the past five years. It is obvious that these three countries have become the main importers of Russian machine tools, and their total imports in the past five years the proportion of the amount of money accounts for an average share of 55.3% of the total import value. Therefore, we can follow the imported machine tool models of the three countries and the corresponding average unit prices to understand the demand for metal processing machines in the Russian terminal application market.

Taiwan is Russia's fourth-largest importer. In 2018, the import value was 130 million U.S. dollars, with a share of 8.0%. In the past five years, the average proportion and value of imported machine tools from Taiwan was approximately 4.6% and 72 million U.S. dollars.

Observing the compound growth rate of the number of imported machine tools from 2015 to 2018 in Russia, we can learn more about the country's main imported machine types during this period, and infer the main demand products in the machine tool consumer market at this stage. During this period, except for metal smelting and casting converters, ladle, ingot molds, and casting machines, the CAGR was -20.2%, and the CAGR of metal rolling mills and their rolls was -24.3%, and the CAGR of metal cutting center processing machines was- 5.1%, etc., while the demand for imports from abroad has a decreasing trend, the other models have a compound growth rate ranging from 0.3% to 22.6%.

During this period, the compound growth rate of Russia's imported machine types, from large to small, is the special processing machine that uses lasers to process various materials for cutting metals, with a CAGR of 22.6%; other non-metallic, cermet, etc. For cutting machines, the CAGR is 17.9%; for metal cutting machines such as planers, slotting machines, broaching machines, and gear cutting machines, the CAGR is 8.9%; for drilling, boring, milling, and threading machine tools, the CAGR is 6.5%; metal pressure for processing machines, the CAGR is 4.1%; for metal grinding, grinding, polishing or other finishing machines, the CAGR is 1.4%; for metal cutting lathes, the CAGR is 0.3%.

Russian machine tool applications take the automotive industry as the bulk

The application of Russian machine tools is mainly in the automotive and component manufacturing industry. In 2017, the amount applied to this industry was 665 million US dollars. It is estimated that it will increase to 825 million US dollars in 2020. The compound growth rate from 2017 to 2020 is 7.4%. Further analysis of the proportion of the Russian machine-tool application market, the amount applied to the automotive and component manufacturing industry accounted for 37.3% of the total Russian machine tool application market in 2017, and the proportion is estimated to increase to 39.6% in 2020.

Russia's automobile component manufacturing plants and automakers are concentrated in St. Petersburg, which is a major automobile manufacturing town in Russia. The number of automobile manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers in the Togliatti, Moscow, and Tatarstan regions each account for approximately 10% of the total number of automobile component and vehicle manufacturers in Russia, with 5 automobile component manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers respectively Set up a factory locally, so it is also an important settlement for Russian automobile manufacturing.

Russia's car sales in the past five years have shown a trend of first decline and then growth. 2014 was the highest peak of automobile sales in Russia in the past five years. After that, it showed a recession for two consecutive years from 2015 to 2016. Until the past two years, 2017 to 2018 showed a year-on-year growth trend. In 2014, Russian car sales fell by 10.3% compared to 2013 at 2.491 million vehicles. In 2015, it fell sharply, with a decline of 35.7% to 1.602 million vehicles. In 2016, it declined by 11.0% to 1.426 million vehicles. Sales volume in 2017 was 1.596 million units, an increase of 11.9% compared to 2016; sales volume in 2018 continued to grow to 1.8 million units, an increase of 12.8% compared to 2017.

The car production and car sales in Russia in the past five years have shown a trend of growth after the recession. Russia’s car production in 2014 was 1.893 million vehicles, which fell by 13.3% compared to 2013; in 2015, it fell sharply, with a decline of 26.9% to 1.383 million vehicles; in 2016, it continued to decline by 5.5% to 1.308 million vehicles. The production volume in 2017 was 1.555 million units, an increase of 18.9% compared to 2016; the production volume in 2018 continued to grow to 1.771 million units, an increase of 13.9% compared to 2017.

2018 Russian machine tool mid-level import market is dominated by Taiwan

According to Russian customs import data, the average unit price and quantity of machine tool products imported by Russia from 55 countries in the world in 2018 are analyzed, and the total import quantity in this market is 926,808 units and the total import value is 1,416,312,374 US dollars, based on the average unit price of imports It is US$5,889/unit and US$54,809/unit, divided into three regions.

In market areas where the average unit price of imports exceeds US$54,809/unit, the import volume accounts for 1.0% of the total import volume, and the import value accounts for 44.4% of the total import value. The largest supplier of this regional market is Germany, with an average unit price of US$54,809/unit, and the number of supplied products accounted for 62.5% and 0.6% of the total imports in the region and Russia, respectively. As for the number of products supplied, it accounts for 52.0% and 23.1% of the total import value of the region and Russia. Secondly, the second largest supplier of the regional market is Switzerland, with an average unit price of US$126,112 per unit, and the number of products supplied accounted for 7.8% and 0.08% of the total imports in the region and Russia, respectively. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 14.8% and 6.6% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. Also, the top five suppliers in the region include Japan, South Korea, and the Czech Republic.

Between the average import price of US$5,889/unit and US$54,809/unit, the import volume accounted for 1.8% of the total import volume, and the import value accounted for 19.9% of the total import value. The main supplier of this regional market in Taiwan, with an average unit price of US$22,780 per unit. The number of its products accounted for 32.5% and 0.6% of the total imports of this product in the region and Russia. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 44.9% and 8.9% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively.

The second is the United States, with an average unit price of US$22,245/unit, and the number of products it supplies only accounts for 19.9% and 0.4% of the total imports of this product in the region and Russia. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 26.9% and 5.3% of the total import value of the region and Russia, respectively. The top five suppliers in the region include Turkey, Ukraine, and Spain.

As for the market areas where the average unit price of imports is less than US$5,889/unit, their imports accounted for 97.1% of the total imports, and the import value accounted for 35.7% of the total import value. The main supplier of this regional market is China, and the average unit price of its products is US$325 per unit. The number of products supplied accounts for 88.6% and 86.0% of the total imports of this product in this region and Russia. As for the number of products supplied, they accounted for 51.3% and 18.3% of the total import value of the region and Russia. The top five suppliers in the region still include Italy, Belarus, the United Kingdom, and Poland.

Russia's import of machine tools slows down, and import substitution policies continue to ferment

In 2017, Russian manufacturers demanded the replacement of new equipment due to obsolete equipment, coupled with the Russian government’s support for the development of the automobile industry, and extended new car purchase and subsidy policies to support the development of the automobile market, so the consumption value of Russian machine tools increased by 25.8%. However, continued economic sanctions in Western Europe and the United States, as well as the slowdown in the global economic recovery, and the decline in crude oil prices, have slowed down the increase in the consumption of machine tools. The growth rate of machine tool consumption in 2018 was compared with that in 2017. Slow down, with a growth rate of only 5.2%. However, in 2019, affected by the continued slowdown of the global economy and the destocking, the cumulative import value of machine tools from January to May decreased by 11.9% compared with the same period last year.

In addition to the products provided by domestic manufacturers, the source of the Russian machine-tool consumer market is also mainly imported from European regions such as Germany, Switzerland, and Italy, Asian regions such as Taiwan, South Korea, and China, and the United States in the Americas. Models to meet the needs of the Russian defense industry, aviation components, automobiles, heavy industry, energy, shipbuilding and metal manufacturing, and other related machine tool application industries. The proportion of imports in the past three years has grown year by year. At present, more than 70% of the machine tool products used in the country are imported from abroad. However, in recent years, affected by the devaluation of the ruble, the relative cost of purchasing equipment from Western European countries has increased, and a large number of low-end CNC products from China have been purchased, making China the second-largest importer of machine tools in Russia.

At this stage, Russia is actively promoting the "import substitution" policy to overcome the economic crisis. It is estimated that by 2020, it will significantly reduce the import dependence of many industries. When government units and private enterprises purchase machine tools, more than 10% of them must be value-added locally in Russia.

Since machine tool products have been included in Russia’s “import substitution” policy, Taiwan’s machine tool industry needs to continue to grasp the core content and development trends of this policy, and pay special attention to Russia’s imports of Taiwan’s main products, namely cutting Metal lathes, metal cutting machining centers, single-station, and multi-station combined machines, and metal pressure processing machines may be subject to local substitution effects in the future.

Also, Taiwan’s machine tool industry can focus on Russia’s machine tool products with a relatively high compound growth rate in the past three years, such as special processing machines that process various materials with lasers, and other non-cutting processing machines for metals, cermet, etc. , And metal cutting machines such as planers, slotting machines, broaching machines, gear cutting machines, and drilling, boring, milling, and threading machine tools. However, due to the vast territory of Russia, it is really difficult to establish a comprehensive after-sales maintenance service base and network. However, there are a large number of local agents in Russia who can maintain and install machines. Therefore, they can provide customers with the following services required by local agents to reduce the operating costs of Taiwanese machine tool manufacturers and increase Taiwan's machine tool product competitiveness in the Russian market.