With the rise of the global electric vehicle market, how should Taiwan’s opportunities be grasped?
In 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic hit the global economy, and oil-producing countries have repeatedly agreed to cut production to stabilize oil prices; at the same time, the stock price of Tesla, an electric car manufacturer that was once looked down upon by the market, rose more than 50 times against the trend, and doubled after the spin-off, the market value exceeded 820 billion U.S. dollars, ranking among the top 10 companies in the world by market value.
Tesla's growth and benefits not only lead the trend of electric vehicles, but also through the rapid improvement of technology and mass production capabilities, the film science fantasy has been implemented, and it has also guided the new direction of the development of the automotive industry.
Observed from the development history of electric vehicles, government policy announcements, and subsidy policies, Tesla's increase in mass production capacity and subsequent price reduction strategies have become important drivers of the popularization of electric vehicles.
Looking at the sales of Tesla, a global electric vehicle indicator manufacturer, in recent years, the total global sales in 2018 was 230,000, and the second-ranked Chinese BAIC Group sold 152,000; as of 2019, Tesla’s sales in Model 3 With the substantial increase in production capacity, a total of 367,000 electric vehicles of various types have been sold globally, with an annual growth rate of 59.56%, which has greatly reduced the distance from the second place, China's BAIC, with 163,000 units.
To seize the Chinese market and expand its mass production capacity, Tesla's super factory in Shanghai, China, was built from scratch in only one year. The mass production at the end of 2019 is an important milestone for Tesla's development. Tesla’s 2020 production target is 500,000. Although the Fremont plant in California and the Giga plant in Shanghai were closed for several weeks due to the COVID-19 epidemic, according to the data released by Tesla in early January 2021, the cumulative production of electric vehicles in 2020 will reach 50. There were 9,737 vehicles, and 49,950 vehicles were delivered throughout the year. The annual growth rate is still as high as 36.12%.
Foxconn launches MIH platform, sounding the horn of Taiwan's electric cars
It is a long and gradual process for Taiwanese manufacturers to enter the electric vehicle industry. From a few pioneers such as BizLink, reduction gear components, and large ones that supply Tesla battery-powered wiring harness, as industry demand increases, Taiwanese manufacturers are gradually expanding. Into the lithium battery copper foil for electric vehicles, battery cathode materials, cooling fans, LED lights, vehicle lenses, touch panels, charging grabs, main control computers, and other functional components, including vehicle electricity, body, battery, charging, Motor power and other systems.
Foxconn and Yulon allied to announce the establishment of the MIH platform alliance. Taiwan’s electronics and automotive industries will formally take the lead, integrating and leading technology and component companies to enter the electric vehicle industry and get rid of the past manufacturers’ single-handed order model. Together to create the future of industrial transformation.
In 2020, Foxconn announced the MIH electric vehicle software and hardware open platform, which led to the development of Taiwan’s electric vehicle industry. In just over three months, the MIH alliance attracted 635 manufacturers from all over the world to join, which not only represents Foxconn Group’s determination to deploy electric vehicles. Behind it shows the rising trend of the global electric vehicle wave.
Multinational policies announced the ban on fuel vehicles, accelerating electric vehicles to the mainstream
The global awareness of energy conservation, carbon reduction, and environmental protection is on the rise. The governments of Norway, Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France, and other countries have successively announced policies, subsidies, and timetables for banning fuel vehicles and promoting electric vehicles; the President of the United States also announced that about 650,000 vehicles will be sold. The government's official vehicles are replaced by electric vehicles, and it plans to invest 500 billion US dollars in the future. It is estimated that 100% clean energy and zero-emission vehicles will be implemented by 2050.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry of Japan have proposed that in the mid-2030s, the sale of fuel-fueled vehicles will be banned, and only hybrid and pure electric vehicles will be sold; the EU will formally implement strict carbon emission regulations from January 2021, while the major member states of Germany and France Increase the subsidy policy related to electric vehicles.
In Asia, China has not yet clearly proposed a timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. The Prime Minister of India has proposed a policy of fully electrifying two-wheeled vehicles by 2025 and banning fuel vehicles and only selling electric vehicles by 2030. Overall, the prohibition and restriction of fuel vehicles have become an important part of the carbon reduction policies of various countries. Electric vehicles are standing on the trend of rapid development and promoting the innovation of the automobile industry.
From 2025 to 2026, the golden cross of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles
The timetable for prohibiting fuel vehicles in various countries can be pushed back. From 2025 to 2026 is a critical period for the development of electric vehicles. During this period, the sales of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles will show a golden cross curve, and the sales of the two in the northern hemisphere will be different. Up to half. It is estimated that by 2030, the proportion of global sales of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles will increase to 8 to 2. The era of electric vehicles will come faster than everyone thinks. Major auto-industry powers are vying to compete. It is expected that the era of electric vehicles will come from 2030 to 2035.
Not only, Tesla, Audi, and Apple are also coming to plant the flag electric car
The electric vehicle market is fiercely competitive. It is estimated that by 2030, the global electric vehicle sales will reach 22 million, which is nearly 10 times the current market size. The average annual compound growth rate in the next 10 years will reach 27%, and Foxconn launches electric vehicles this time. The MIH platform of the car has mastered the general direction of the change in the wind direction of the automotive industry.
However, in the current electric vehicle market, not only Tesla, or NIO, XPeng Motors and other manufacturers compete; major well-known brand car manufacturers such as Audi, Daimler AG, BMW, Ford, Toyota, Nissan, Volkswagen, etc., are also actively participating in electric vehicles. In the competition, even Apple intends to launch Apple Car early to join the battle.
The big challenge for Taiwan's development of electric vehicles, the battery industry is the key
For the development of electric vehicles in the Taiwan market, Foxconn believes that the key to its development lies in batteries. Taiwan already has a good battery industry foundation but needs to further improve performance and technology. In the future, the two key points of electric vehicles are battery revolution and energy management.
Taiwan’s semiconductor and operating interface industries are strong points. Taiwan must also have key manufacturers in the battery field. In the future, in the field of electric vehicles, Taiwan’s semiconductors, machinery, molds, and 5G networks will play a key role. The period from 2025 to 2030 is the key period for the golden take-off of Taiwan's electric vehicles. In the future electric vehicle era, the three-electric system will have achieved market competitiveness if it develops well. The three-electric system mainly consists of batteries, motors, and electronic control systems. The basic chemistry and material science of automotive batteries are very important. At present, automotive power batteries are dominated by Chinese, Korean and Japanese manufacturers.
In the past two years, the European Union has felt that the technology of car batteries has fallen sharply. It has actively supported car battery manufacturers through subsidies and rewarded R&D and manufacturing. The EU has been surprised that if it does not actively invest, key technology products in car batteries will be controlled by other countries. Taiwan needs to actively strive to catch up in the field of vehicle batteries, and the government must invest in countermeasures and resources.
Electric vehicles drive the industrial revolution and drive the transfer of industrial territory
Electric vehicles are currently driving the transformation of the traditional automobile industry. The automobile industry is ushering in a leap-forward change. The traditional design thinking powered by internal combustion engines will be replaced by electric energy, which will drive brand-new automobile technology. Electric vehicles will drive five major technical needs such as lithium batteries or fuel cells, chassis software and hardware integration platforms, the intelligence of entertainment information systems, automatic or advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), and the Internet of Vehicles. Among them, power management and power consumption reduction design will be the key.
Electric vehicle motors will also drive new equipment requirements. For example, electric vehicles require a quiet design, gear grinders are the key; electric vehicles require servo control, and steering gears and brakes require ball screw components. Electric vehicles will change the demand for machine tools and equipment, and will significantly increase the order size of component manufacturers, which is full of challenges and opportunities.
The development of electric vehicles will also drive the shift of the global engineering industry. It is expected that after electric vehicles become mainstream in 2030, more than 300 parts and accessories manufacturers in the northern hemisphere, including exhaust pipes and hoods, will be transferred to the southern hemisphere.
Because the entire southern hemisphere is still short of electricity, and the southern hemisphere's electricity supply is insufficient, it has not been able to drive the development of the necessary charging piles for the electric vehicle industry. Therefore, the development of electric vehicles in the southern hemisphere will be later than in the northern hemisphere. It is estimated that after the electrification of vehicles in the northern hemisphere, the southern hemisphere may still be the world of traditional fuel vehicles. After 2030, traditional fuel vehicles will have at least 20 to 30 years of industrial life in the southern hemisphere.
The face of electric vehicles will drive major changes in related industries and supply chains, which will change the after-sales service and sales model of the automotive industry; the number of maintenances of electric vehicles will be significantly reduced, and the sales model will change. The software-defined electric vehicle platform will drive the software channel marketing model, and software updates will make electric vehicles smarter and smarter.