Governments are actively promoting the development of regional semiconductor supply chains. AI combines emerging technologies and applications such as the Internet of Things, automotive electronics, and compound semiconductors to drive the growth momentum of the semiconductor industry.
Global Semiconductor Scale:
In 2021, the global semiconductor market is expected to increase by 25.1% year on year due to the surge in market demand, pushing the global semiconductor market to a new peak of US$550.9 billion. It is predicted that positive growth momentum will be maintained in 2022, but when supply and demand are flattening, it is predicted that the global semiconductor market will grow by 10.1% annually in 2022, and the global semiconductor market will reach US$606.5 billion.
Taiwan Semiconductor Scale
Taiwan's semiconductor industry leads the world in launching SoC 5G chips, has the world's most advanced 5nm process technology, and provides customers with heterogeneous integrated chip packaging services, enabling Taiwan's semiconductor industry to undertake semiconductor orders required by the global market. At a time of high demand, Taiwan's semiconductor industry will be at full capacity in 2021, and even when the capacity utilization rate exceeds 100%, it will immediately supply the required semiconductor chips to the global market.
In 2020, the total output value of Taiwan's IC industry was NT$3.2 trillion. In 2021, Taiwan's IC industry is expected to grow by 25.9% annually, pushing the total output value to a record high of NT$4.1 trillion. The growth momentum of Taiwan's IC industry is higher than the global semiconductor market average. Looking forward to 2022, when the global market demand continues to exist and the production capacity supply tends to balance, Taiwan's IC industry will grow by 12.0% annually, and the total output value will grow to NT$4.5 trillion. Taiwan's IC industry will continue to maintain the global market average. High growth momentum performance.
Trends in terminal electronic products:
- ARM enters the PC market. 2025 ARM-based CPU market share: 17% (PC); 20% (Server).
- Mobile phone brands develop their chips.
- 3C manufacturers enter the electric vehicle market.
Trends in semiconductor application categories:
- There will be high growth in 2021, and the growth momentum will slow down from 2021 to 2025. Automotive, storage and industrial semiconductors are categories with high growth momentum in the future.
- Intel developed a "neural computing chip" in an attempt to surpass the performance of existing chips. Intel's own most advanced "7nm EUV" technology has developed "neural computing chips".
- Vehicle HPC is extremely explosive. The global automotive HPC semiconductor CAGR (2021~2025) = 212.4%; in 2025, the global automotive HPC market size will reach 8.04 billion US dollars.
Semiconductor industry chain:
The structure of the semiconductor industry is an industrial chain type that combines supply and demand of upstream, midstream, and downstream. As far as the semiconductor industry is concerned, the upstream industries are materials, equipment, and integrated circuit (IC) design, the midstream industry is integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing, and the downstream industries are integrated circuit (IC) packaging and performance testing. Emphasis on hardware manufacturing and production.
The structure of the microelectronics information (communication network) industry is also an industrial chain type in which the supply and demand of upstream, middle, and downstream are combined. As far as the microelectronics information industry is concerned, the upstream industries are integrated circuit (IC) components, passive components, and accessories, the midstream industries are the production process of printed circuit boards and functional modules, and the downstream industries are application system products. Assembly and performance testing is a combination of hardware and software manufacturing and production.
The microelectronic information (communication network) industry and its technology can be said to be a digital industry and its technology. The development and application of all digital technologies are inseparable from the semiconductor integrated circuit (IC), the core component of microelectronic information technology.
The semiconductor industry is the core of the key components and their printed circuit board hardware in the microelectronic information (communication network) industry. The progress of the key components and their circuit board hardware technology will drive the improvement of the performance of the application system products. At the same time, it also drives the development and promotion of software program-related technologies. Hardware vehicles (such as computers, laptops, tablets, smartphones) and software applications (Platform, App objects) are complementary. It is an element that promotes the digital industry, the digital economy, and the digital country.
Semiconductor Manufacturing Mode:
The manufacturing modes of the semiconductor industry include Integrated Device Manufacturing (IDM) and Foundry. The Integrated Component Manufacturing (IDM) model is a vertically integrated manufacturing method with its own branded products. As for the foundry's model, it is a manufacturing method with a horizontal division of labor and a semiconductor manufacturing foundry without its label.
The Integrated Component Manufacturing (IDM) model is that a company produces almost one-stop production from upstream, midstream, and downstream operations, and produces its own branded products. It is characterized by a mode of operation with less flexibility and less flexibility, which is conducive to the mass production of a single product.
The Foundry model is that several companies are distributed in the upper, middle, and lower reaches, and each operates and produces according to its professional expertise. An integrated circuit (IC) design company specializes in circuit design, an integrated circuit (IC) foundry company specializes in IC manufacturing, and an integrated circuit (IC) packaging and testing company specialize in IC packaging and testing. Its characteristic is a highly flexible and flexible operation mode, which is conducive to the small-volume and customized production of diversified products.
The introduction of new technologies such as 5G, IoT, Cloud, and IT, directly or indirectly drives the development of semiconductor integrated circuit component technology and its industrial chain.
- Benefiting from economic growth, the rise of mobile communications, and the development of cloud computing, East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) has become a hot spot for the development of the semiconductor industry:
- Taiwan has the world's leading foundries (such as TSMC, UMC), and original design manufacturers (such as Foxconn Technology Group and Quanta Computer).
- Japan is an important producer of semiconductor materials, high-end equipment, and specialty semiconductors.
- South Korea is an absolute leader in the high bandwidth memory (HBM) and dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) markets.
- China's semiconductor market accounts for about half of the global semiconductor market, and China also aims to establish a fully self-sufficient semiconductor industry.
- As the demand for consumer electronics products is saturated, the growth of the semiconductor industry will be flattened. Several emerging areas will present ample opportunities for the semiconductor industry:
In the automotive industry, safety-related electronic systems are experiencing explosive growth. By 2022, the cost of automotive semiconductor components will reach $600 per vehicle. Automotive semiconductor suppliers will benefit from strong demand for automotive semiconductor equipment such as microcontrollers, sensors, and memories. Over the next decade, developments in automation, electrification, networking, and security systems will drive the number of semiconductor components used in automotive electronics and subsystems to grow.
The artificial intelligence semiconductor market is highly competitive, not only at the application level but also at the semiconductor chip level with different architectures competing with each other. To improve efficiency and reduce costs, the application of artificial intelligence chips in data centers continues to grow, and cloud technology has thus become the largest market for artificial intelligence chips.
- Mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor industry have reached a peak, and vertical integration has gradually become the focus of the industry. Japan and South Korea are trying to revive their semiconductor industries through acquisitions, at a time when an ongoing trade war and intellectual property disputes will hamper China's global investment spree.
- China has become an important source of revenue for the world's major semiconductor manufacturers, many of which have more than half of their revenue from China. Multinational companies intending to enter the Chinese market should consider a combination of factors such as policy, technology, marketing, logistics, and global strategy.
Under the influence of the epidemic, there is a shortage of raw materials around the world, cities have been shut down in various places, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the global semiconductor industry has become increasingly serious. The global demand for semiconductor chips continues to rise, pushing up the global semiconductor industry revenue in 2021 and 2022. However, the capacity of wafer manufacturing cannot meet all the needs, resulting in the shortage of semiconductor wafers, which has become the new normal in the global industry. It is estimated that this situation will continue for at least one or two years.
In the face of geopolitical developments and the imbalance between global semiconductor supply and demand, governments around the world are actively promoting the development of regional semiconductor supply chains. Under the active expansion of the production capacity of fabs, it is expected that the supply and demand situation will ease from the second half of 2022 to 2023. In addition, AI combined with emerging technologies and applications such as the Internet of Things, automotive electronics, and compound semiconductors will drive the continued growth of demand for more types and quantities of semiconductor components, becoming the main driving force for the growth of the semiconductor industry.
